> You've said a bunch of things that don't really equate to "China already won".

There is no path for victory for the US, where it remains the world's reserve currency. China will become the world's reserve currency by 2032.

You are simply in denial. Everything that I wrote points to China winning.

Reserve currency status entirely depends on whether the issuing authority has the ability to drop a munition (literally or figuratively) on the head of anyone who dares to counterfeit the currency.

China's military and soft influence are improving but until they get that good, USD will remain the reserve.

Because, imagine the scenario where the US simply counterfeits the renminbi. What is China's recourse? Spicy statements by Wang Yi in toothless international forums?

> China will become the world's reserve currency by 2032.

China doesn’t want this for the same reason that some Americans currently in power don’t want the USD to be the world’s reserve currency - it comes with an export and trade cost.

There are also many structural and political reasons why the Yuan can’t play this role not least of which are transparency, the peg and monetary supply independence.

This has to be the funniest thing I’ve read for a while. China still has two exchange rates.

Folks can keep their heads in the sand for pretty long, as long as they look just at progressively smaller circle around them and ignore rest of reality.

The momentum China already gained, and gaining more every day is well beyond anything in the west. Plus if you consider the position they are rising from, its properly meteoric. Nobody knows future, but its rather easy to continue projection with current, or even a bit slower pace and within 1 or 2 decades, situation will be pretty clear from any objective perspective.

Above is purely technological/process progress. Add US making enemy of whole world in one brilliant move, something that is practically irreversible in upcoming decades, and situation is clear. Military (without ammo) alone won't give you much negotiating power. LLMs can be replicated elsewhere with rather little cost, and soon some small bleeding edge advantage will be largely meaningless for most practical tasks.

It doesn't even matter what near future brings, this is settled and no amount of denial from US or self-patting is changing that.