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voidUpdate 5 hours ago

There is the Outer Space Treaty (1967), which forbids placing "nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies or station them in outer space in any other manner", but you can get around that by saying that it's just a conventional weapon, not nuclear or WMD. If it's for space to space combat, you could say that any weapon is potentially a WMD due to the Kessler potential, but if its space to ground, like an orbital missile platform or something, you are technically in the clear.

I'm guessing it doesn't ban weapons in space completely because of things like the survival guns on Soyuz (if they still fly them), used for defending yourself against wild animals in the event that you land in a forest or similar. "No weapons in space" would ban that as well, but I think it's reasonable to have a survival kit, just in case

notahacker 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Realistically pretty much anything in orbit is a viable space to space weapon (for related reasons all space propulsion is ITAR controlled) so it was never practical to ban them. Space to earth, maybe, but that isn't unless it hits vague 'WMD' categories, and I'm not sure space to ground is necessarily what the US is declaring here.

I suspect whatever capability the US is referring to is far more "counter space" than WMD in scope and an incremental improvement on kinetic and electronic warfare capabilities it's long had. You can do a lot of irresponsible damage in to space assets with ground launched anti-satellite capability, as multiple tests have already demonstrated...

mapt an hour ago | parent | next [-]

A bullet travels at a relative speed of about 250 to 1250m/s. A ~10g projectile moving that fast has an energy of 600-16000 joules.

Everything in low Earth orbit is moving at 7600m/s. A ~10g projectile moving that fast has an energy of 580,000 joules. Getting hit by something moving that fast is roughly equivalent to getting hit by a whole ammo case of bullets at the same speed. There is no armor that can protect you; Even the most solid objects behave like fluids at this relative velocity, potentially incurring more damage from the explosion / shockwave splatter than a thinner object that would allow you to overpenetrate.

A cardboard box of ball bearings with a handgrenade in it in LEO being triggered could wipe out nearly everything up there, and depending on the exact altitude it could effectively mine LEO and prevent humanity from using it for a long time, with a selectable duration between months or millennia depending on altitude.

"Space warfare" in LEO is a matter of everybody walking around with a personal nuclear weapon strapped to their back that can be activated on a hair trigger. We may well wipe everything out by accident, if it gets too crowded or because somebody stubbed their toe. Regardless, there is no selectivity, and any actor with space launch capability can blot out our access at will in ways that will outlive them.

Basically our only hope of continued use is things that persuade us to refrain from attempting to incorporate space into a theatre of war. That box of ball bearings should have higher stakes on the escalation ladder than a tactical nuclear strike. And it probably shouldn't be there in the first place.

lr1970 33 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> Everything in low Earth orbit is moving at 7600m/s. A ~10g projectile moving that fast has an energy of 580,000 joules.

What matters is the relative velocity of the projectile towards the target. I practice it will be smaller or larger (if the bullet is incoming). But steering an incoming projectile is way harder.

waste_monk 17 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

>A cardboard box of ball bearings with a handgrenade in it in LEO being triggered could wipe out nearly everything up there, and depending on the exact altitude it could effectively mine LEO and prevent humanity from using it for a long time

Eh, you can do a lot better than that: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/conksat_introducing-fragsat-f...

:)

spwa4 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

But people want laws to not have to face this, and yet systematically refuse to actually do anything when those laws get violated.

A law is fundamentally what's enforced, not what's on the paper. Which means if countries vote against any kind of enforcement, like happened here, those laws (whether rights or something else) don't exist. And they don't exist because regular people may shout about them (most don't), but they won't actually do anything, which, for most people, means pay for it.

What's worrying is that human rights are definitely on the same train. When you critique this you get an angry retort that for example China commits large scale human rights violations against it's own population, and how unreasonable it is to expect anyone to do anything about it. Okay, but then we don't have human rights, please don't claim otherwise.

zenbane 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

This is why culture is important to. You can't legislate morals and ethics.

smackeyacky an hour ago | parent | next [-]

We’ve seen this doesn’t work nearly as well as the homogeneous culture people would like us to believe. Ambrose Bierce nailed it (paraphrasing) the bible is an excellent book for your neighbour.

bloak 33 minutes ago | parent [-]

Seeing as the Bible is a Manual of Genocide I'm not sure about that.

Forgeties79 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You absolutely can legislate morals and ethics. That’s why you can’t murder people.

brookst an hour ago | parent | next [-]

“Can’t” seems incorrect here. Plenty of people murder people.

You can’t murder people and expect life to go on as usual. But the act itself doesn’t seem to be eliminated by legislation.

willy_k an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Good example of their point. That’s not “why”.

somenameforme an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A lot of messaging is much more propaganda than reality. For instance it's trivial to turn things around against the US where we have the highest prisoner population in the world, by an overwhelmingly wide margin, disproportionately made up of a single ethnic minority, who are then are pushed into forced labor. Is that because we're engaged in large scale human rights violations against our own population and enabling defacto slavery for profit generation?

Certainly not, but it's easy to frame it in that way. And I think it's something similar with China. They've had major problems with separatist movements and terrorism from the Xinjiang/Uyghur region and are similarly awkwardly trying to resolve it in a way that is extremely easy to frame as being the greatest crime against humanity since Justin Bieber. In the US we have nothing really comparable because the only violent/separatist movements have been extremely small scale. I expect that if we had something on an even remotely comparable scale that our reaction certainly wouldn't be more 'humane.'

It's all just geopolitical poo flinging.

----

Space is going to be weaponized, simply because it's a prisoner's dilemma. If everybody chooses not to weaponize space except one person, that one person now has a massive military advantage over everybody else. No country is going to accept this, and consequently I expect that space has probably been weaponized for decades. The benefit treaties, and of the charade of pretending everybody is abiding them, is that it discourages use of such weapons except as a last resort. Normalizing them is dangerous simply because it opens the door to their deployment in more mundane contexts, like a geopolitical proxy war, rather than as a means of last resort.

feoren 9 minutes ago | parent [-]

> Is that because we're engaged in large scale human rights violations against our own population and enabling defacto slavery for profit generation?

Yes, that is absolutely correct: the United States is engaged in large-scale human rights violations against our own population and enabling slavery for profit generation. You nailed it. It's not even "de-facto" slavery, it's de-jure slavery on the actual books. Slavery is not (fully) illegal in the United States.

> I think it's something similar with China

China also commits wholesale human rights violations against its own people, although the scale is much worse. I strongly doubt the U.S. actually has more prisoners than China, it's just that we actually count them all.

> They've had major problems with separatist movements and terrorism from the Xinjiang/Uyghur region and are similarly awkwardly trying to resolve it

This is assuming good faith to the point way beyond naivete. The Chinese government is not "trying to resolve terrorism", they are committing mass murder and ethnic genocide.

> extremely easy to frame as being the greatest crime against humanity since Justin Bieber

Are we doing Whataboutism here? Let criticisms stand. I can say "it's wrong to round up ethnic minorities and put them in concentration camps" without it having to be the greatest crime against humanity ever. Are we really going to be forgiving all actions because someone in history did something worse?

> It's all just geopolitical poo flinging

Not everything is always the same. While criticisms can be levied against every country, scale and impact matter. I'm sure someone could come in and point out problems with the government of The Netherlands, and those problems should matter to the Dutch people and they should call them out and work on fixing them. But that doesn't mean it's the same as what China is doing or what for-profit prisons in the U.S. are doing, nor would it be hypocritical for The Netherlands to be critical of those practices.

> A lot of messaging is much more propaganda than reality.

Is your comment an example of this?

jmspamerton an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

rjsw 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Almaz had a 23mm cannon [1].

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Almaz_program#Defense_measures

voidUpdate 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes, but again that was a conventional weapon, and would have been fine under the treaty. I don't exactly condone it but it was also crap and never flew again. This video https://youtu.be/e-n_V5iEwAs goes into some of the reasons it was a particularly crap idea

exe34 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> used for defending yourself against wild animals

> in the event that you land in a forest or similar.

I was very confused and wondered where this was going!

pwdisswordfishq 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Not that the US ever gave a shit about international treaties.

_djo_ 5 hours ago | parent [-]

To be fair, this move is coming after fairly strong evidence that Russia and China have been breaking the treaty by deploying weapons into space for years. Which the US has highlighted many times in the past.

At some point you have to acknowledge that the treaty is no longer being respected, and match capabilities to avoid being left at a disadvantage.

That said, I'm sure there were tons of people in the US military establishment who had been pushing for this for decades and were ecstatic at being allowed to do it at a broad scale.

notahacker 9 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Neither Russia nor China's know weapons deployment is likely to breach the very narrow restrictions of the Outer Space Treaty, and the latest capability the US has vaguely claimed probably doesn't either.

In practice, the US has had practical counter space and electronic warfare capabilities in space for decades (even a regular satellite with enough delta V is a viable weapon, but superpowers have more targeted capabilities than that), and the observable difference is that the current administration's approach leans more towards bragging.

voidUpdate 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Russia was at least planning to launch a space-to-space laser back in 1987, but the prototype (essentially just a mass simulator, no lasers inside) failed on launch quite spectacularly https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polyus_(spacecraft)

_djo_ 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Russia also seems to have tested the release of a sub-satellite from another satellite, perhaps a precursor to a kinetic space-launched weapon.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/secretive-russian...

aa-jv 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>fairly strong evidence

Got some?

_djo_ 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Sure.

https://www.ifri.org/en/studies/current-and-future-trends-ch...

https://www.swfound.org/publications-and-reports/2026-global...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01402390.2024.2...

https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4431/1

https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Annual_Report/Chapt...

aa-jv 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I see a lot of fear-mongering reports from sources claiming authority.

I don't see any evidence.

_djo_ 4 hours ago | parent [-]

What kind of evidence are you expecting? Detailed photographs of the satellites on orbit?

These are credible institutions, with their statements regarding unusual orbital movements backed up by observations made by several independent groups.

etiennebausson 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I personally don't trust elements provided by U.S. agencies and foundations since the Irak war and the "proof" they delivered to justify it.

Proxy at work is stopping me from reading most of grandparent links, so it'll have to wait for home.

mc32 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It’s like they’ll believe any rumors about the US doing things but then need concrete evidence irrefutable evidence when it comes to its adversaries.

aa-jv 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I'd like to see evidence which supports the claims and not have to rely on a call to authority fallacy[1] in order to agree with this collective-derived reality.

I have no doubt that there are weapons in space - Russian, Chinese, American - why wouldn't there be? - but I still want to see actual evidence.

None of the sources you give are impartial - all of them serve to profit from perpetuating fear of Chinese space activities.

Too often, xenophobic movements rely on authority figures to perpetuate their myths. Don't you agree?

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority

voidUpdate 3 hours ago | parent [-]

What evidence would satisfy you that there are weapons in space? You either have to check yourself somehow, or trust a third party. Is there a third party you trust to provide evidence?

aa-jv 3 hours ago | parent [-]

The article from The Space Review comes pretty close to providing some actual evidence.

There are no trustworthy third parties when it comes to xenophobic agitprop.

voidUpdate 3 hours ago | parent [-]

What extra would you want from the space review article that would constitute actual evidence for you?

aa-jv 2 hours ago | parent [-]

There are lots of claims and speculation that China is developing space weapons, and there is an allusion to evidence (but no actual evidence) - and maybe China is fully committed to space battles in the near future - but I think the more important question is, why should I care that China is doing this?

The US has space weapons, too - it has also demonstrated the same capabilities recently, with regards to destroying defunct satellites and using lasers to disable communications.

But .. of the two nations, the only entity that I truly worry about, is the USA and its allies - given what they have done on the surface of the planet, what they do in space is far more worrying ..

andsoitis an hour ago | parent [-]

> There are lots of claims and speculation that China is developing space weapons, and there is an allusion to evidence (but no actual evidence)

Why do you keep avoiding the question?

Gregkion 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

And USA for sure didn't do that...

_djo_ 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

If they did, then all three are equally guilty of breaching the treaty and making weapons in space a new norm. That's plausible, sure.

If they didn't, it makes sense why they'd choose to compete on the same playing field now, as the norm is already broken.

None of what I'm posting is about saying the US are the 'good guys' here. Neither the US, Russia, nor China are 'good' for creating a new space arms race that puts everyone at more risk. It might be something we can understand from a purely rational perspective while disliking that it's happening.

maxglute 2 hours ago | parent [-]

>equally guilty

Not really, LBH, if RU and PRC ask US to kneecap US launch tempo or set some Washington naval treaty tonnage to space limits, US would lol.

Rationally US (hegemonic stability) is incentivized to be uniquely bad, i.e. significantly MORE guilty of introducing new/more escalatory arms race conditions by virtue of having most space capability/tech stack, and incentivized to maintain capability gap. US typical the one pushing boundaries to seek absolute security because it cannot (and currently does not have to) accept parity.

Followed by RU simply because they're broke and have to do desperate shit like Cosmos 2542. Meanwhile PRC counterspace rollout has been within norm, i.e. match capability of others, land->space direct ascent ASAT, coorbital rendezvous / proximity ops, EW/dazzlers (land+space). PRC cooking from the regular menu, partly because catchup, but PRC also way past RU in space now, but hasn't introduced any destabilizing novel counter space tech that would escalate space arms race except doing normal stuff at scale that triggers US anxiety over size of gap. But ultimately, no one is forcing US to break meta continuously because it rationally won't accept vulnerability.

DoD/W didn't have to weaponize SpaceX... but they did, so we should not be surprised in future if general international space admin/order breaks down in future. i.e. US/SpaceX got first come first serve dibs on favourable civilian LEO orbital shells assignment from UN/ITU, but now SpaceX now civil military fusion platform, so probably expect PRC counter space mega constellations to simply ignore US space entitlements in future.

TitaRusell an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

We don't know what the US does. They are just as enigmatic as the Chinese to the point that US Congress is not even allowed to learn about the secret projects.