I think you should get less annoyed.

> It’s not that the simplest is more likely to be correct, it’s that you should prefer it, because it’s simple.

I don't know what Occam meant, but if you accept the formalism of PAC learning, it is more likely to be correct

http://www.cse.buffalo.edu/~hungngo/classes/2008/694/papers/...

http://cs.ecs.baylor.edu/~hamerly/courses/5325_10s/papers/le...

None of your links work for me.

There are also various metaphysical theories that posit that the universe is algorithmically generated in some sense or the other, and from many of those theories it follows that simplicity is a fundamental feature of reality, which yields an even stronger version of Occam’s Razor.