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0xDEAFBEAD 2 hours ago

We need to be careful of wishful thinking. People are going to want to assume the existence of some sort of "deus ex machina" which is going to make everything fine. I prefer to turn the logic around. If there's any decently high chance that things could go off the rails, we should be shutting AI development down: https://pauseai.info/

strgrd an hour ago | parent [-]

It is easier to imagine the end of the world than the pausing of AI.

0xDEAFBEAD an hour ago | parent | next [-]

People were feeling doomtastic about nuclear weapons during the Cold War as well.

Listen to the words of this song written in 1969: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r2JcxHX-8Xc

  When every man is torn apart
  With nightmares and with dreams
  Will no one lay the laurel wreath
  When silence drowns the screams
  Confusion will be my epitaph
  As I crawl a cracked and broken path
  If we make it, we can all sit back and laugh
  But I fear tomorrow I'll be crying
Ultimately, we have made it, through arms control agreements, working to limit the spread of nuclear weapons, and so forth. We can do the same for AI.

You don't have help. But perhaps you could at least avoid discouraging people unnecessarily?

jonahx an hour ago | parent | next [-]

> Ultimately, we have made it

Spinning the present situation or the history of nuclear arms as a high-five, "go team human!" success story is... quite the take (Vasili Arkhipov, Cuban missile crisis generally, the current doomsday clock being "the closest the Clock has ever been to midnight in its history").

> You don't have help. But perhaps you could at least avoid discouraging people unnecessarily?

More germanely, you don't have to worry yourself, but at least avoid discouraging people with legitimate worries who want to take precautions. Even the present situation with nuclear weapons, precarious as it is, would likely be more precarious were it not for the political pressure of the people worrying in the 1950s and 1960s and up to today.

gerdesj 21 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I lived through roughly the latter half of the cold war and both of my parents were soldiers. I lived in West Germany etc.

No we have not escaped the nuclear thing. If anything, the current Russian tzar is rather more unhinged than any of his predecessors.

I doubt many here know what perestroika and glasnost mean or why those Russian words were so important back in the day.

I don't fear AI (where on earth would an "autonomous" AI manage to find the power requirements). Darleks can't really fly and LLMs will stop when you pull the plug!

I do fear numpties with a red button and a tenuous grip on reality.

wat10000 10 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We have not made it. We have survived so far but the threat remains. Stockpiles and warheads have shrunk, so it wouldn’t be nearly as bad as in, say, 1983, but we’re still one mistake or misunderstanding away from the worst day in human existence.

And worse, somehow we’ve managed to declare victory without achieving it, and there’s no longer any real attention on actually fixing the problem.

If AI follows the same example, we’ll take some measures to lessen the impact of Armageddon and then carry on saying “problem solved!”

astrobe_ 36 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

Except we did had a bunch of close calls [1]. Also, we've been warned about climate change for at least 30 years and were unable to avoid it. So OP's remark is entirely deserved.

Until proven otherwise, we are not part of a movie where the hero saves the day at the end. I thought 9/11 made it pretty clear to everyone?

[1] https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/nuclear-vault/2020-0...

vouaobrasil 26 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't think the end of the world would even be a bad thing; a lot of people assume that it would be disastrous but I think it's much more likely that it the "end" would just be a fragmentation that would be pretty uncomfortable, but not to the point of being horrific. I actually think that people are more resilient and creative than they think and if they were faced by a global economic collapse so strong that big tech would go bankrupt, they would bounce back pretty quickly. It's just that we've seen so many movies about the end and have been conditioned to believe that we're helpless that we think otherwise.

ijidak an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Yeah. Humans will shut down AI research around the same time they dismantle their nuclear weapons and agree on the causes of climate change.