The majority of revenue comes from API usage. The majority of usage comes from subscriptions. For any of the numbers to make any sense, subscriptions must be subsidized ergo the majority of usage is subsidized. A single $200 subscription can incur upwards of $10,000 in API equivalent usage (and even more when there are frequent resets).

If it were true that Anthropic and OpenAI were profitable on all inference they wouldn’t need to constantly raise so much money. Anthropic regularly announce huge investments in infrastructure but it is all smoke and mirrors, data center build out costs aren’t being paid by OpenAI and Anthropic, they’re financed externally. Google, for example, are backstopping tens of billions of datacenter build outs that are being financed based on commitments but not investment from Anthropic.

You are underestimating the insanity of subscription subsidization. Being profitable on API inference is meaningless when it is such a small proportion of usage and is only going to fall off a cliff as cheap open weight models become more capable.

https://hraness.com/writing/my-girlfriend-asked-me-why-i-hav...

The absolute majority of tokens are being subsidized and as soon as the subsidies end usage will fall off a cliff, rendering all the data center buildout a terrible waste of money.

> The majority of usage comes from subscriptions

Do we know that? As I understand it, enterprise customers pay more. Do we know the usage breakdown between monthly subscribers vs enterprise accounts? I agree that it's inevitable that subsidized subscriptions are unlikely to last forever, but that's not the only assumption in your argument.