| ▲ | 3eb7988a1663 2 hours ago |
| Things are really about to hit the fan. The world has been surviving off of strategic petroleum reserves, but those are quickly hitting the bottom. The US last reported at 285M barrels[0]. There is a legal floor of ~250M, after which it is reserved for government national defense. Usage has been all over the place, but the drawdown has been somewhere in the region of 1M barrels per day. Public analyses have said that the cavern integrity becomes threatened once levels fall below 300M. Current government claims the "real" floor is at 70M, but I believe this is a transparent ploy to assuage markets. The Saudi pipeline that was attacked had a capacity of 7M barrels per day. Gone for who knows how long. That 7MBPD that needs to come from somewhere. Edit: Should add - the big tankers require ~month to move oil to most consumers. So, there is one month of breathing room before the new pipeline loss materializes. [0] https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W... |
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| ▲ | ndiddy 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > There is a legal floor of ~250M, after which it is reserved for government national defense. There is no "government national defense floor". As far as I can tell, this originates from someone misreading the SPR drawdown laws and then a bunch of people parroting it. The ~250M "floor" (really 252.4M) only applies for SPR drawdowns that aren't required by a severe energy supply interruption or to meet US obligations under the international energy program. Deciding what qualifies as a "severe energy supply interruption" is left up to the president. Essentially there's nothing stopping the president from emptying the reserve entirely. See sections d and h here: https://uscode.house.gov/view.xhtml?req=(title%3A42+section%... > Public analyses have said that the cavern integrity becomes threatened once levels fall below 300M. This isn't how the SPR works. They withdraw oil from it by pumping in water (oil floats on water, so the oil goes to the top). This means that the caverns won't cave in or something if there's too little oil, since they'll have the same volume inside them. What does wear out the SPR is drawing down at all, since the water erodes the caverns. The problem is cumulative, not caused by levels going below a certain point. There's a good article that goes over how the SPR works and its current status here if you're interested: https://files.gao.gov/reports/GAO-26-106918/index.html |
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| ▲ | omgwtfbyobbq an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | The problem with drawdowns is they can and have compromised the structural integrity of the caverns used in the SPR. Like oil, they're a finite resource and should be used judiciously. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/2585591 | | |
| ▲ | stouset 30 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I love that you think the current administration will actually consider this when deciding whether or not to suck it dry anyway. |
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| ▲ | tialaramex 26 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Thanks for the link, I didn't know very much about how this is implemented and now it's much clearer. I fully expect to see the same things I've just learned on a Youtube video or cable TV news some time from now when stuff goes badly wrong and it doesn't mesh with the simple "Huge metal tank somewhere" picture of such a reserve I'd imagine the average voter has. Like Britain's ageing gas mains this feels like a measure which should have become irrelevant just as it would otherwise need renewing, a huge saving - but of course we (as a species) will always procrastinate so that was never going to happen. For the next 5-10 years Britain will continue replacing pipelines to deliver a fossil fuel (natural gas, methane, for heating) we should have long since stopped using but didn't. | |
| ▲ | fc417fc802 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Either way it seems the US has somewhere from 1 to 8 months before accounting for reductions due to national considerations. That's concerning no matter how you frame it. What's the outlook for the other major economies? | |
| ▲ | nerdsniper an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | The caverns have salt walls. The water erodes the salt caverns. |
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| ▲ | sandworm101 9 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| What a great time to start a trade war with the largest oil exporter. Think there is a shortage now? Just think what happens when canada turns off the taps. Even the threat could trigger covid-style hoarding. |
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| ▲ | spicypixel 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It’s doubly bad now China is back buying oil. |
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| ▲ | WarmWash 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Trump will 100% ignore the defense reserve. Congress won't stop him either. |
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| ▲ | dools 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Expect many “court finds that Trump …” headlines with zero consequence. | |
| ▲ | georgemcbay 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Trump will 100% ignore the defense reserve. I'd love to see someone try to refute this as the obvious outcome given every decision Trump has made, especially in his second term where he has far less sane babysitters around him. This is the "If we stop testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any" guy. This is the guy calling for steep rate cuts in the midst of a serious inflation problem. This is the guy that sabotages solar and wind power, intent on keeping us on oil and "clean coal" (lmao). He's 80 years old and a malignant narcissist, he doesn't give a single fuck what happens to anyone after he's dead (and he knows that'll be pretty soon) as long as he gets what he thinks he wants today. > Congress won't stop him either. Also something that proves out daily. | | |
| ▲ | dofm 24 minutes ago | parent [-] | | FWIW if I understand correctly what people say about Trump’s psychology, which if he is a malignant narcissist is a pretty complex maelstrom of instincts, he is actually at a disadvantage in imagining ever dying. He will not be able to cope with the idea, or be able to rationally plan for it. Unlike other eighty year olds he is not thinking of a future without him in it; rather nobody else has any future without him. So he is not acting nihilistically but desperately and grandiosely, as a way to deflect from the whole concept. I think there are many examples of this in recent months, but they are moderated by his inability to stay awake. |
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