It doesn't ring true and it never rang true. He was wrong in 2022 and he'd be wrong today. He had (and likely still has) a wrong model of LLMs. Not exaggerating 2022 capabilities and having a model so wrong you're out of whack 4 years later are 2 different things. There are people who had the right idea from the start.

https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/02/19/gpt-2-as-step-toward-g...