I spent a few hours trying to run all the numbers myself from first principles (e.g. sum of all American salaries is 11.7T, plus international), to see what I could come up with.

What I came up with was Nvidia is maybe slightly overpriced currently, but a bad stock to buy or hold onto because the risk of it shrinking is significantly higher than the risk of it ever doubling again (and it trades at a tech/growth multiple). The case is far worse for Anthropic/OpenAI who, at current pricing, capture such a tiny slice of the pie it's hard to see how they will stay in business long term.