I thought the warming waters were supposed to increase the number of hurricanes?

yanslookup 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Overall the expectations are an increase in intensity and inability to predict. There is no expectation around consistency. That is why climate change is going to be such a disaster, it's not acutely predictable and it's death by a thousand cuts for us. The floods in Nepal etc are a good example. Very hard to predict, extremely distructive.

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Veliladon 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

El Niño sends the jet stream southward. Once the jet stream gets far enough south it tears apart any developing storms in the Gulf and Caribbean Sea before they have a chance to become a problem.

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bearjaws 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Also having large waves of Saharan dust which is too dry and inhibits hurricane development.

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abakker 38 minutes ago | parent [-]

Where does this dust end up? Into the oceans? Because iron-rich dust entering the oceans helps create nutrition for algae which can absorb CO2

	▲	joecool1029 16 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Believe it or not at least 40 million tons of it ends up in the Amazon basin each year where it does have an effect on the plants there: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/1/1/014... It goes elsewhere too, as expected.

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fhdkweig 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurricane/will-2026-go-down-w... says:

> Given the strong and still-strengthening El Niño, which tends to reduce the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin while boosting numbers in the Pacific, there is some chance that this season could end on Nov. 30 with no hurricanes.

But I am not liking this site. Both articles are mostly just restating "this is really rare" in 5+ different ways without explaining why. If anyone has a better site, a link would be most appreciated.

	▲	tito an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Stripe's climate scientist Zeke Hausfather built this dashboard: https://dashboard.theclimatebrink.com/#enso

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WarOnPrivacy 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I thought the warming waters were supposed to increase the number of hurricanes?

That is a question. I suppose the answer is yes, you thought that.

You likely thought that because - Holy cow. Year after year after year of explosively strengthening Cat5 storms is fairly well unprecedented.

source: FL coastal resident and repeated hurricane relief worker.

Equally unprecedented is the supercharged El Nino that's been interfering with the Atlantic Basin's ability to form storms, in proportion to it's record development.

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ChrisMarshallNY 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

My understanding was fewer storms, but the ones that do happen, are stronger.

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echelon 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

El Nino decreases Atlantic hurricane activity.

Weather patterns in the Americas and Asia change in the summer through winter months. Rainfall changes throughout the Americas, and Asia sees worsening floods and storms.

Just because the Atlantic sees fewer hurricanes doesn't mean it's out of the woods - the number of winter storms increases.

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monster_truck an hour ago | parent | prev [-]

Oh it will. It's very fucking bad to not have had any yet

	▲	anonymousiam 23 minutes ago \| parent [-]
		Just so I understand you correctly: 1) It's "fucking bad" that we are at a 60-year low for hurricanes this season. 2) It's "fucking bad" that "global warming" will cause more hurricanes in the future. So how does it actually work? Climate "scientists" have been telling us that Earth has severely warmed already, and they've been telling us that the warming will cause more hurricanes. So when is that going to begin exactly?