It follows if the goal is to deflate the bubble without popping it, and if the reality under the hood supports the absurd investment. The companies themselves wouldn't do it, but they could be required to if they want to operate in the US.

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Aurornis 20 hours ago | parent [-]

> It follows if the goal is to deflate the bubble without popping it,

The conversation was about AI safety, monitoring, and regulations, not bubbles.

Forcing the weights to be opened to the world accomplishes the opposite of all of that. The argument is incoherent. Or this author doesn’t understand the topic at all?

> The companies themselves wouldn't do it, but they could be required to if they want to operate in the US.

What makes you think the companies outside of the US wouldn’t just thank the US companies for their open weights and then continue on without any of the regulations but all of the advantages?

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jacobgold 20 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Forcing the weights to be opened to the world accomplishes the opposite of all of that. The argument is incoherent. Or this author doesn’t understand the topic at all?

Or maybe you understand less than you think?

Frontier progress is limited by compute, and compute is bought with investor money. Investors fund labs at hundreds of billions because they expect exclusive ownership of the model weights.

If the weights are public the day a model ships, the valuations drop, the funding rounds shrink, and the next training run is smaller or later. Make sense?

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Aurornis 20 hours ago | parent [-]

Your whole argument seems to rest on the idea that the AI race is entirely contained within the United States, where we can regulate them.

And that no other country might just take the open weights and continue right on with the advancements in private?

	▲	jacobgold 20 hours ago \| parent [-]
		No, it rests on the idea that almost all of the money, most of the people, and the GPUs are here. Any country would be able to take the open weights and keep going in private. But countries like China can already do that today, since the weights are almost certainly already in foreign hands due to espionage. What they can't do is fund the next frontier run at today's pace without selling into the US market, and selling into the US market can require opening the weights.

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20 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

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EA-3167 19 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

All of this rests on the assumption that this game of musical chairs can continue indefinitely. If you believe that then this is flushing money. If you don’t it’s acknowledging failure to monetize the tech to the tune of trillions, and fail a bit more gracefully and usefully for everyone.