> Even if there's just a 1% likelihood

This is like me saying "Even if there's just a 1% likelihood of me getting struck by lightning..."

You're implying that 1% likelihood is the floor, because 1 is the lowest natural number and feels like a good default "low percentage", but there's zero justification for putting the floor that high.

Conjuring an unsupported "low" probability and multiplying it by a massive outcome to make it seem significant is one of the most irritating ways people launder their opinions(/gut feelings) through "math".