> if it is too dangerous the go through bab al-mandab strait it is more lucrative to sell the crude oil to europe at a discount?

I suspect they would sooner curtail production rather then sell at a discount due to route restrictions.

Not really. It is very hard and expensive to get these oil well pumping again. That is why we had negative oil prices during covid. Plus, when we are talking about the Gulf states, they have extremely low production cost. The discount would be against world prices, not production cost.