I've never seen oil prices decrease due to any regional disruption; the market is global. If the price in Alberta went up when the Straight closed, I wouldn't hold my breathe for Europe in this scenario.

>I've never seen oil prices decrease due to any regional disruption; the market is global.

oil spiked and then crashed during the gulf war & the iraq war in 03.

the gulf war probably because of western price control methods kicking in, the iraq war because of an increase in confidence that the region would produce oil after western 'securing' of oil fields allowing further volume investment from the UAE and friends.

I guess it really just depends on what the definition of 'regional disruption' is.