its already true today according to openrouter usage stats. https://openrouter.ai/rankings Most people just use cheaper open weight

Intuitively I agree with you, but you've cited evidence that doesn't actually prove what you said. Yes, openrouter users choose cheaper open weights. If you're on openrouter, you're already shopping around. We'd need stats for claude, codex, gemini, grok (yuck), AND openrouter, to determine what people in general (not just the subset of people who decided to shop around) are actually doing.