I think AI is a contributor, but really it's interest rates. Valuations were previously high when money was cheap. Money is no longer cheap, and won't be for the foreseeable future. Therefore, valuations have compressed, it's time to call it quits, and so you'll see a lot of deal M&A as these economic investment decisions are made.

https://www.carlyle.com/carlyle-compass/software-do-we-go-no...

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/16/apollo-john-zito-private-equ...

https://aventis-advisors.com/software-valuation-multiples/

The "SaaSpocalypse" is really AI providing cover for "our valuations and multiples previously based on zero interest rate policy are severely impaired, and it's time to unload to sophisticated investors to get liquid." Very similar to how AI is being used as cover for labor efficiency measures like operating with a bare bones crew, offshoring to India and LATAM, etc.

If your business or investment is interest rate sensitive, you're gonna have a bad time. And interest rates, based on yield curves and the bond market, are fairly likely to continue to go up.

(a component of my work is due diligence for tech M&A)