| ▲ | mostly_harmless 3 hours ago |
| Fatality data is extremely skewed. 44% of drivers aren't using a seatbelt, 29% are speeding related, I recall alcohol involvement being about 30%, though it's not listed in the link I checked. About 20% of automobile fatalities aren't in cars but are pedestrians or bicyclists struck by cars (add another 16% if you want to include motorcyclists, though only half of which involve another vehicle). I recall the percentage of vulnerable road user deaths is much higher in urban areas. (https://www.iihs.org/research-areas/fatality-statistics/deta...) The majority of drivers are good, but some drivers are really bad.
Life in USA is extremely car-centric and taking away a license is often infeasible and the offender usually drives without their license anyways. If anything, I'd like autonomous cars to give a legal out to remove bad drivers. You get a DUI, or commonly speeding? You may only take an autocar. |
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| ▲ | BugsJustFindMe 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| > "The majority of drivers are good, but some drivers are really bad." I take issue with this. The majority of drivers are "mostly fine as long as circumstances are favorable", not "good". People for the most part do not even know about the concept of defensive driving let alone practice it. Even the best people are fundamentally complacent in basically everything they do. They zone out sometimes, they get too close, they don't always look where they're going. They don't get into more collisions because the world doesn't throw more obstacles at them, not because they're good at driving. |
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| ▲ | seizethecheese 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I disagreed with you and went looking in the article for evidence (yeah bad, epistemologically). I actually found evidence for your point. The largest cause of fatal crashes is Generally distracted or "lost in thought" (daydreaming) at 64%. That happens to most people,. | | |
| ▲ | Gigachad 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The human brain was not designed for a task which requires hours of siting down doing mostly nothing while being hyperfocused the entire time ready to take over in an instant on the rare occasion something happens. While running or cycling your brain is actively engaged keeping yourself upright and avoiding obstacles which keeps you alert. | | |
| ▲ | tialaramex an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | That's true. Humans are bad at this task. On the railways they have a problem with this too, "Lookout" seems like a ludicrously easy job, but it's basically impossible because you must pay attention to an incredibly boring thing for hours or your friends might die. Getting rid of human lookouts should be a priority but it feels easy and so it's hard to motivate this. | |
| ▲ | nomel an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Seems at least somewhat comparable to walking through a forest full of predators, while, say, hunting/gathering. Evidence that is is compatible with our psyche is the fact that we're at 1.19 fatalities per 100 million miles driven, and ~50% of those being booze and/or speeding. |
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| ▲ | missinglugnut an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | How many of those 64% had their accident because of phones/drugs/recklessness and claimed to be distracted instead? With all the liability and shame involved in fatal crashes there's absolutely no way people are going to honestly self report illegal behavior. | |
| ▲ | tialaramex an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | You can see it in what people say right after an accident, stuff like "He came out of nowhere". |
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| ▲ | jcranmer an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | As a point of evidence in favor of this viewpoint: Multi-dozen car pileups aren't particularly rare, with the common cause for a lot of these being "one car hits an icy patch, hits another car, car behind them tries but fails to stop in time due to the ice, rinse and repeat a few dozen times". And the root cause of that is every single driver in that collision driving too fast for conditions and unable to make the requisite emergency stop in time. | |
| ▲ | Retric 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Good here is in reference to the average crash statistics. Most drivers are safer than the average, because you can’t go below 0 and some people are really bad. | | |
| ▲ | ryandrake 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I know someone who's been at fault in at least 12+ car accidents, and she keeps driving (as someone else put it you almost have to drive in the USA). There are colossally bad drivers out there and we don't yet have a viable system for keeping them off the road. | | |
| ▲ | GrinningFool 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | How is she able to get insurance coverage? | | |
| ▲ | nradov 44 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | Most US states have some sort of assigned risk pool which makes minimum coverage available to even the worst drivers, as long as they still have a valid license. (I'm not claiming that this is necessarily a good public policy, just pointing out that it exists.) https://insurify.com/car-insurance/knowledge/assigned-risk-a... | |
| ▲ | BugsJustFindMe 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | 1) What makes you think she has insurance coverage? 2) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Actuarial_science | | |
| ▲ | GrinningFool 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | With that many accidents, I'd assume bankruptcy if she didn't. re: 2) yes that was the point. She'd have to be paying multiple thousands in an assigned-risk pool policy with that record of at-faults. | | |
| ▲ | phainopepla2 an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | An estimated 1 in 6 drivers in Los Angeles don't have insurance. I know at least a dozen people who have been hit by uninsured drivers, and that's not counting hit and runs, who probably are also mostly uninsured. The victim's own insurance will pay if they have uninsured motorist coverage (you'd be a fool not to have it, living in LA at least), but there is basically no punishment for the uninsured driver, assuming a fender-bender. The police won't do anything. The insurance companies don't think it's worth their time to try to squeeze out something from someone who probably has almost nothing anyway. | |
| ▲ | jakzurr an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Unfortunately, if you make (or are born with) enough resources, you might skate for quite a while. Eventually you might get a lot of fines and even some jail time, but afterwards, some people just take their chances and drive anyway. |
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| ▲ | saalweachter 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It looks like the median/mode is 1-2 car accidents (50% of drivers), and the average is 3-4. 25% of drivers have no accidents (as far as insurance companies are concerned, ie, no claims or police reports). I'm curious how this looks with various ways of normalizing for amount driven; is that no-accident crowd the quartile of drivers who don't drive very much? The biggest factor in being in the opposite group (the 10% of drivers with 50% of accidents) is "drive all the time, commercially or otherwise". | |
| ▲ | BugsJustFindMe 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You cannot measure driver goodness (skill and vigilance) by looking at crash statistics, because crashes are definitively circumstantial. Most very clearly bad/dangerous/unskilled/unvigilant operations of automobiles do not lead to crashes. |
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| ▲ | Veserv an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The fatality rate is 1.19 per 100 million vehicle miles [1], ~83 million miles per fatality. The mean driver averages ~15,000 miles per year. So, the mean driver encounters a fatal crash after ~5,500 years of driving. If you started driving when the Great Pyramid was built, you would still have another 1,000 years before you would expect to die in a fatal crash. The mean driver in the context of the USA driving environment is shockingly safe. Being safer than even the mean human driver in the USA is hard and takes a shocking amount of data to verify. Anybody downplaying it as "lol humans are so unsafe" to argue the problem feels easy to solve or can be solved by the end of the year with a little bit of elbow grease is utterly clueless. [1] https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/... | | | |
| ▲ | bad_haircut72 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The people OP is talking about, the 0.05% absolute worst drovers, are not merely complacent, they're doing things like getting hammered and going street racing (shamefully I can say, I was 19 once...) or speeding away from crimes etc edit: someone else replied with data contrary to this, maybe they are right but Im leaving this here to represent the counterargument | | |
| ▲ | BugsJustFindMe 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It's a category error to say that everyone else are good just because they're not the worst you can imagine. It doesn't matter what your worst 0.05% do. It doesn't make most people actually good drivers. | | |
| ▲ | notahacker 18 minutes ago | parent [-] | | It's more of a category error to imply that robotaxis are 92% safer than human-driven taxis if it turns out that the raw accident rate they're baselining against is disproportionately caused by people who not only aren't full time professional drivers but shouldn't be allowed near a car [in their current state]... |
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| ▲ | ummonk 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The other reply doesn't contradict what you're saying. Someone who was street racing is going to tell the cops / insurance company that they were lost in thought. |
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| ▲ | binary0010 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Yeah, there's a woman who is quite old and has a severe disability who drives regularly through our neighborhood who's car every few weeks has a new giant dent, missing fender, broken windshield, etc. It's sad we don't have a better way for people in these situations to do what they need without driving.
It will be incredible to have autonomous driving just for older and or disabled drivers like this. |
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| ▲ | sensanaty an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | You could always invest in actual public transport & sane infrastructure, rather than relying on clogging the streets up with more cars, autonomous or otherwise? My mother-in-law is in a wheelchair and zooms by on the bike paths faster than I do thanks to her handbike (it's seriously insane how fast people can move with handbikes), and if she needs to travel large distances she hops onto a train instead. The best part of proper infrastructure and public transport is that it makes life for the drivers easier, too! | | |
| ▲ | PorciiVorbesc an hour ago | parent [-] | | >You could always invest in actual public transport & sane infrastructure, rather than relying on clogging the streets up with more cars, autonomous or otherwise So what should the disabled people do until that amazing public transport infrastructure materializes, if it ever even does for them at all? Sit at home and wait? I dislike this type of patronizing superficial handweaving advice that is disconnected from the harsh challenges of building more great public transport infra (lack of funds, geography and land ownership issues, nimbyism, public safety concerns, labor/material shortages, government bureaucracy, corruption and incompetence etc). People use cars because they have no better choice. I'd also want my city to build me Swiss levels of public transport so I wouldn't have to drive, but guess what, the infra sucks and the city is insolvent, so that leaves me with little choice for the next decades as 100% nothing will change for the better in this regard, so then car driving it is. I didn't make it this way, it's the way the city management has botched it over the last decades, but it's still on me now to adapt to it, and cars are one of the ways. I agree with you in spirit, that everyone should have great public transport ideally, but when cities are broke and that infra doesn't exist, then that externality is burdened on the individuals because they have no other choice but still need to get to work and other places. Telling them they can "just build more infra" is like telling homeless person they can just buy a house. OK cool, but with what money? |
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| ▲ | Robotbeat 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I believe Tesla’s FSD is already better than such unassisted drivers. Particularly with the current FSD limitations which require monitoring driver attentiveness. If every drunk who attempted to drive was using FSD, deaths due to drunk driving would be virtually eliminated. Heck, even advanced lane keeping and smart cruise control from other manufacturers, while much more crude, would still help tremendously. |
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| ▲ | ricardobeat an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Does that skew really matter? Nearly all of those conditions are avoided by autonomous vehicles. |
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| ▲ | kyleblarson an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| My tesla has yet to ask for a road beer while in FSD. |
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| ▲ | scotty79 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > The majority of drivers are good Well, 80% of us believes ourselves to be above average, so there's that. |
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| ▲ | giancarlostoro 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > Life in USA is extremely car-centric Mostly yes, but some states like NYC its more common to take trains, taxi cabs / Uber / Lyft, etc. |
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| ▲ | driverdan 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | As much as people who live in NYC like to believe they're a state they're not, they're a city. Most of the state of New York does not have good public transit. | | |
| ▲ | JoeAltmaier 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Pedantically true. By population density, NYC is essentially the whole state, or what matters anyway, to the huge majority of residents. | |
| ▲ | bluGill 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Even in New York City,
a very large number of people are not taking transit, there are a lot of cars. Generally gets about a third though different boroughs have different numbers, Manhattan, most people are walking, everywhere else cars are significant, though subway and transit are also there. But you can't really say overall for the city that transit is how people get around. |
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| ▲ | GrinningFool 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It says a lot that 3 of the 4 options you gave involve cars. |
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