You can’t do anything novel with these models from scratch and let it fly. I’ve observed something over the past few months

Work on something novel -> llm is kinda useless and low value-add -> Keep at it and in the process feed it more information -> keep doing this periodically -> a few months go by and you realise the model outputs are almost like-for-like regurgitations of what was inputted in some prior period.

Once it’s accumulated new info can it produce something automated that is somewhat useful? Sure.

But by itself - absolutely not.

I clearly see humans will be needed - the best ones that is. For ‘rote work’ and stuff that is not IP sensitive firms will be ok with employees putting that as inputs into models.

But I’d wary about trusting the labs. They will push the letter of the law to the max.

Personally I’ve stopped doing anything novel with these models. If I do use a model on something adjacent but not totally novel I have to craft the inputs in a strategic way not to give much away.

I’d wager firms will soon realise this and that growth rate of revenues of the frontier labs will become questionable. The economic cost that firms have brought out thus far is only financial. There’s a whole bunch of other costs people aren’t talking about.

Agree all. And as the revenues become questionable, the frontier labs practices will necessarily become (more) questionable. Vicious cycle.

To avert that dynamic, the frontier labs must deflect and otherwise act to prevent this controversy from breaking through. Both to the general public, but also more specifically to the firms' decision-makers. All of whom are generally aware of the IP issues, and some of whom are aware of what happened with Cursor and Figma, but with few exceptions have not yet themselves acted to protect their property.

I think you stopped at the wrong time with the wrong perspective. Why can't that info accumulation part also be made more self-contained?

I guess I'm having trouble unraveling your experience and personal usage vs. what you're concluding about the labs.

This doesn't follow for me. There are what, Dozens or Erdos tier problems that got solved with no progress for decades? How does that factor in to your view?