Finding 4 is a must-read:

> Finding 4: Labor vs. capital share: The pie will grow, but a larger share might go to capital

> Today, of each dollar the economy produces, about 60¢ goes to workers and 40¢ go to capital.

Modest scenario: 40.6% to capital in 2030 (labor share down 0.6 points)

Substantial scenario: 43.9% to capital in 2030 (labor share down 3.9 points)

Extreme scenario: 54.8% to capital in 2030 (labor share down 14.8 points)

So all the growth goes to capital. For knowledge workers: substantial unemployment and declining wages. For other workers: wages may increase on paper, but not really for actual purchasing power. (note: all of their estimates are for 2030, not for a distant future)

Very dystopic indeed.

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cman1444 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>For other workers: wages may increase on paper, but not really for actual purchasing power.

This is not necessarily a conclusion you can draw from that statement. It's possible that as the economic pie grows, workers' purchasing power increases compared to the counterfactual (a non-AI world), but their purchasing power does not increase as much as the capital owners' does.

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ozgung 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Correct. But…

According to data in the site and paper [0] labor income is estimated $20T for all four scenarios (including no AI) in 2030. Which means capital takes ALL of the new pie coming from AI.

Also, I am not an economist but I assume if you are not growing as much as GDP, it basically means you’re shrinking. Relatively shrinking, but since everything is relative in an economy you are actually shrinking. Table 4 in paper gives the numbers.

[0] https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/files/4zrzovbb/website/cf58f84...

	▲	evenhash 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I think that would only follow if the rest of the world’s purchasing power also grows at the same rate (unlikely), or if you were to cease all international trade (uhh…).

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TheAlchemist an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

How do we fight that ?

I'm thinking on this topic a lot lately - how do we change the system so that the bigger the company, the harder it becomes ? It's more of a political / societal issue. Similarly to housing - I believe it should be cheap to buy your first home, more expensive to buy a second one, and very expensive afterwards.

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kelseyfrog 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It's crazy how we all have to build the AI that will render us unemployed.