> Abstractly, yes but concretely, how?

AI has the capability to perform any function that can be performed over a network. You would hope that every system that can launch a nuke is properly and actually totally air-gapped, but there are lots of things you'd hope that turn out to not be true.

They are not totally. As such I would give non zero chance of even current AI to be able to socially manipulate a launch after sufficient hype up period... So prolonged campaign might make it possible.