The proof is that LLMs could barely solve arithmetic 3 years ago, but now surpass the best human mathematicians, and that this has all occurred from simple principles (RL + compute) that will continue to scale up by factors of millions in the coming years.

Also, advocating for slowing LLM progress does not benefit Anthropic or OpenAI.

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platinumrad 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They surpass the best human mathematicians in one specific way: they don't get tired or bored.

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xyzsparetimexyz 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It won't scale up by factors of millions, that's just obscene hyperbole. Since chatgpt we've probably made things 10x more intelligent on the same hardware. We've also made way more expensive models. Maybe we get a maximum of another 10x efficiency and 5x model size/expense from this point but millions is a joke.

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EA-3167 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Haven't people learned about the peril of assuming, "Line go up" yet?!

TRENDS HAVE FEEDBACK

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skybrian 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Trends don't go on forever, but the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. There's no good rule of thumb for this, other than maybe the Lindy effect.

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EA-3167 5 hours ago | parent [-]

I won’t presume to time it, but at this point I think anyone can see what’s coming. It’s precisely because it can’t be timed that a sane person should stand well clear.

	▲	skybrian 5 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I certainly can't see what's coming. I believe that nobody really knows what's coming. Some people are overconfident.