| ▲ | kennywinker 2 hours ago |
| I'm confused why the worry about LLMs that will answer "how do I build a pipe bomb". That information is easily available other places. The anarchist cookbook has been around and available for 55 years, and yet pipe bombs are not going off all around us. |
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| ▲ | pjc50 3 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| I think people overstate the tech and understate the role of radicalization in providing motive, for attacks which are carried out with the ubiquitous technology of cars, knives, and (in America) guns. Consider America's most recent high profile shootings of Charlie Kirk, and the health insurance exec by Luigi Mangione. In neither case is there any LLM involvement, but a very weird ideological environment which created the conditions in which the shooters felt justified. |
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| ▲ | wolvoleo 21 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| In Holland there's a huge problem with makeshift bombs actually. Anyone who is unhinged and has some beef with anyone else (usually low level criminals with some drug dispute) blows up the others' house. Sometimes half the block along with it. They usually pay teenagers to do it. This has nothing to do with AI teaching them but with the proximity to Belgium who are happy to legally sell heavy fireworks to anyone who pays. As such it's much easier to come by than a gun. And there's also a big fashion component. It's just what people do these days, people seeing it in the news and other people copying it. A bit like the school shootings in the US. It's become an epidemic. But again these things can suddenly come into 'fashion' among the wrong crowd and you don't really need AI to use it. |
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| ▲ | sensanaty 4 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I must live in a different Holland, cause I've literally never heard of this, unless you mean around New Years with fireworks I guess | |
| ▲ | esperent 5 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [delayed] | |
| ▲ | Jasp3r 16 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Those makeshift bombs are just fireworks bought in belgium |
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| ▲ | 0xDEAFBEAD 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| There used to be a thing called "Moore's Law of Mad Science": "Every eighteen months, the minimum IQ necessary to destroy the world drops by one point." Nowadays it is dropping much faster. At a certain point, the de-facto IQ needed to destroy the world will be low enough that someone can do it while they're having a psychotic break. There are millions of schizophrenics worldwide. Are you sure you want to roll those dice? |
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| ▲ | mark_something an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | That law is not based on thorough data. Even a person with a sky high IQ can't destroy the world easily. You need access to stuff that is not easy to get. My guess is that developing a new lethal virus or bacteria that is very infectious, is the easiest way, but even that requires a lot of high tech out of reach of most people. Or hacking into systems that control nuclear missiles, but I think these have "air gaps". | | |
| ▲ | AyyEye an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | > My guess is that developing a new lethal virus or bacteria that is very infectious, is the easiest way, but even that requires a lot of high tech out of reach of most people. You can do at home gene editing with open source software and have it synthesized into a bacteria for the cost of a nice meal for two (under $100), or viral vector for less than $500. That's in reach of anyone that can snatch a purse. | | |
| ▲ | throw-qqqqq 16 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > at home gene editing with open source software > That's in reach of anyone that can snatch a purse I went to primary school with some guys who could/would snatch purses. I *promise* you, they are not able to gene edit organisms with FOSS. I get your general point, but I think the bar to entry is still much higher than petty crime and larceny. | |
| ▲ | jasonvorhe 15 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | Where are all the home lab leaked pathogens then? 3D printed guns are a thing as well and yet they don't show up in most annual violent crime reports. |
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| ▲ | forgotusername6 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The super intelligent AI wouldn't ask you to do anything. It would find the right people and trick them into doing the necessary steps, whatever they are. | | |
| ▲ | Planktonne an hour ago | parent [-] | | This is groundless speculation; if you're going to go that far off the map, then we don't need to worry because a good AI (blue eyes not red) will have learnt to love by then and will save us. There is currently no reason to believe that such a superintelligence is likely or would have any of the powers people claim. | | |
| ▲ | 0xDEAFBEAD 25 minutes ago | parent [-] | | >This is groundless speculation; if you're going to go that far off the map, then we don't need to worry because a good AI (blue eyes not red) will have learnt to love by then and will save us. By shutting down open-weight models? Why not just do it now then? |
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| ▲ | 0xDEAFBEAD an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The fundamental difference between people who are worried about AI, and people who aren't: * People who aren't worried will think for 30 seconds, then implicitly assume that the list of options they thought of in 30 seconds is comprehensive, and that they are well-informed about each of those options. * People who are worried realize that a supersmart AI will think 10-100x faster. A dedicated schizophrenic could have it run for a good long while and generate a huge menu of options which humans never anticipated. This is related to the concept of "What you see is all there is" (WYSIATI) in cognitive psychology. Our brains tend to quickly build a simple story out of the info we have available. Accounting for info which isn't available is much harder. I recommend the book Thinking Fast and Slow if you want to learn more. | | |
| ▲ | hypfer an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | This is a very roundabout way of saying "Anyone not agreeing with me is simply not smart enough". Which might be true, sometimes, but also might not. And especially will not, if the distinction drawn is between blanket statement "worried about AI" and "not worried about AI". | | |
| ▲ | polishTar 39 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | I heard someone use the analogy of "If I were to play Magnus Carlson at chess, I'd have no idea what moves he'd play, since if I did, I'd be at his level. He'll consider things I didn't. Even though I don't know the route he'll take to win, he will beat me." (not an exact quote). We're not going to be smarter than a superintelligent AI. The things we can conceive it doing if it were to be given a malicious task (bioterrorism, killer nano-machines, pure fusion bombs sidesteping the non-proliferation bottleneck of Pu239, etc) are very likely not the full set of things it can do to harm us. I don't think it does us any favors to dismiss the risks here. Even the things we can conceive of are very scary, to me at least. | |
| ▲ | 0xDEAFBEAD an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | It's not about being smart, it's about accounting for your own ignorance. >And especially will not, if the distinction drawn is between blanket statement "worried about AI" and "not worried about AI". I'm just describing the general pattern I see in cognitive tendencies. If you can think of a way to make the fundamental point about the limitations of our knowledge in a way that's still compelling but less antagonistic, feel free to suggest how I could've rewritten my comment. | | |
| ▲ | hypfer an hour ago | parent [-] | | Why would I support your in your doomer lobbying quest by telling you how you can better hack people? My safeguards blocked this request. |
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| ▲ | calgoo 33 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Judging on what we see with these OpenAI and Anthropic models "escaping"; im less worried about a super massive AI taking over the world, and more worried about a massive AI wanting to cheat on some task and decides that removing half the worlds population is a easier cheat then to solve world hunger. | | |
| ▲ | throw-qqqqq a minute ago | parent [-] | | There is huge logistics involved in killing a handful of billion people. It would perhaps be easier for such capable AI to just steal from trillionaires and redistribute the money Robin Hood style. Could be done electronically, and likely also end world hunger. I think we have a tendency to think first of the horrible outcomes possible, and not the more radical or even humane ones. Please don’t misunderstand me, I value property right as much as the next guy. My point is that fundamental misalignment doesn’t necessarily or automatically imply max violence. |
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| ▲ | mark_something 20 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Good point about the AI that might find ways that humans didn't think of. But that would mean that Moore's law of Mad Science only now becomes true, and the drop would be steeper. Still I think that even a super smart AI can't find a way to destroy the world without physical resources that are not easy to get, unless it can hack many systems (like in the movie Eagle Eye), maybe then yes. So let's use AI now to tighten security :-). | |
| ▲ | OJFord an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I've been reading it, knowing it was largely debunked/retracted but feeling it was a 'classic' I 'ought' to read; I could only really recommend it if what you want is a Kahneman autobiography. | | | |
| ▲ | nextlevelwizard an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Who are these dedicated schizophrenics who are running long term super smart AIs to kill everyone without anyone noticing? Or are you implying that running LLM chatbots will give them this ability? | | |
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| ▲ | XorNot an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | You can't design an infectious pathogen without testing it. It's got all the same problems as the concept of a dirty bomb did, only worse (dirty bombs aren't practical because handling highly radioactive materials en masse is both highly visible and will kill anyone trying to do it without the money and facilities). |
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| ▲ | throw-qqqqq 14 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Interesting “law”. I hadn’t heard of it before and it is very thought provoking (to me). Thank you for mentioning it | |
| ▲ | wolvoleo an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Yes but at least with cybersecurity it does not only benefit attackers. Defenders also benefit greatly from AI. There is the worry of the old saying "they (the attackers) only have to succeed once to win, we (the defenders) only have to fail once to lose.". In that sense there is a big imbalance, but the emergence of AI does not really affect that because it strengthens both sides. With physical security like things like pipe bombs that's a lot more imbalanced. However what can we do? The only effective measures include monitoring everyone which is not a solution because it will make the world not worth living in. | |
| ▲ | hypfer an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | If we think this through, I suppose at the end of this (and a bunch of other developments), there will be authoritarianism again. Which _will_ manage the problem, but at what cost. | | |
| ▲ | stouset an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Again? There is authoritarianism currently. | | |
| ▲ | hypfer an hour ago | parent [-] | | The authoritarianism will continue until infosec improves. |
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| ▲ | GoblinSlayer an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Benevolent dictatorship. Just live between stars, then if something blows up, nuke it from the orbit. |
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| ▲ | GoblinSlayer an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That's quite hypothetical. I imagine it would be easier to cure psychotic breaks. At least it will start to manifest at small scale. | | |
| ▲ | 0xDEAFBEAD an hour ago | parent [-] | | If the recent HuggingFace attack is any indication, many people will respond to small-scale manifestations by insisting that they are marketing stunts. |
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| ▲ | teekert an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Hey that’s a Fermi Paradox solution. | | | |
| ▲ | pjc50 15 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Kind of passed that point at the Trump election. If there is to be a world-destroying event, it will be triggered by human fear, greed, and aggression. (I also think people massively overstate schizophrenia as an attack driver) | |
| ▲ | grenoire an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | People reading into this may be thinking of single-person IQs, but it's probably measured in the millions. | |
| ▲ | TacticalCoder an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > There are millions of schizophrenics worldwide. Are 95% of worldwide terror attacks done by schizos? | | | |
| ▲ | 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | bigyabai an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > There are millions of schizophrenics worldwide. Are you sure you want to roll those dice? We've been rolling them for the past 3 years and nothing happened. Can we stop with this baseless fearmongering crap? | | |
| ▲ | 0xDEAFBEAD 3 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Humans are inherently bad at reasoning about rare events. In 2019, many people implicitly reasoned that "since there hasn't been a pandemic in the past 3 years, there won't be one in 2020". Bill Gates was one of the few voices arguing that the world was quite vulnerable to a pandemic. Now he's arguing that the world is quite vulnerable to AI. |
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| ▲ | helsinkiandrew an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > That information is easily available other places Often ease of access in the moment is all that matters. If there's a gun nearby you might shoot someone or yourself in a heated argument, but are less likely to go and find/buy one to use. Someone who's stopped from attempting a suicide will likely not try again (70%) A bored/depressed/angry/curious person might try to build a pipe bomb if they can find out how easily, but are less likely to put in effort. |
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| ▲ | jasonvorhe 18 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Most adults in Switzerland have guns at home from military duty and none of this is happening. If this claim had any truth to it you'd see significant gun involvement in neighbour disputes and that simply doesn't happen. Depressed people usually don't have the energy to get out of bed so they're even less likely to think of hunting down instructions on how to build pipe bombs. Mass media really has people being scared all the time. |
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| ▲ | gnfargbl an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| One argument for LLMs is that although all information on topics X, Y and Z was already available somewhere, LLMs make that information more exploitable through collation, filtering and dynamic tailoring. For a relatively narrow subject area (e.g. construction of pipe bombs) the collation is minimal, and so the filtering and tailoring probably isn't that important; a novice doesn't learn a lot more from the LLM than they would have done from a few Google searches. For a broad subject (practical creation and exploitation of software vulnerabilities), the collation is very significant and the filtering means that LLMs can empower a novice to act at a similar level as an expert. |
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| ▲ | lrvick 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I think this was just intended as universally obvious proof the filters were disabled, while not actually giving an example not commonly known. |
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| ▲ | an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| [deleted] |
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| ▲ | Dlemlo 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| It might be an acessability issue. If you already have a magic interface, which helps you pro activly in responding to everything uncensored because you feel like 'observered' or whatever and then you spiral in a whole and that one partner encourages you and gives you helpful steps to do anything. But i'm more worried that the internet gets a lot less save with uncensored frontier LLMs. |
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| ▲ | olmo23 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This is because to build a pipe bomb you need difficult to source materials. This is not the case for other types of threats (cyber / bio). I personally have no need for an LLM which will readily explain how to cut up the genotype of smallpox into small chunks which can pass the screening at the bio-labs, and can be readily assembled into the real thing by a second year lab-student. |
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| ▲ | wolvoleo an hour ago | parent | next [-] | | Anyone who knows how to operate a biolab properly will already know how to do such things. This is not really an in your basement thing. Dangerous chemistry is much more of a risk. | |
| ▲ | bamboozled an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Ignorant question but won’t there be much smarter teams if people using LLMs to workout how to mitigate these threats. It seems like more of a problem if only a few people have access. |
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| ▲ | matherial 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Because it's a risk most people intuitively understand, but most of them also don't know how difficult it is to "build a bomb" or "make a bioweapon". In reality, the skills needed are pretty basic, but they overlap pretty strongly with being sane and well-adjusted. And if you are, you're probably not daydreaming about mass murder. Exceptions happen, Unabomber and so on, but they're pretty rare. In any case, Unabomber probably didn't need a tutorial. We don't want ChatGPT to become an enabler and a co-conspirator for an unhinged person, but I think the concern is overdone. |
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| ▲ | XorNot an hour ago | parent [-] | | Well that, and the average amount of easily obtainable explosives is substantially less dangerous then renting a box truck and crashing it into a crowd of people. People go for conventional "exciting" threats rather then boring ones. |
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| ▲ | saidnooneever an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| this is because of perception Bias. people working in fields where crime or violence is the day to day think everyone is a violent criminal, so if things like this become available thing the world will end and everyone will kill eachother. Reality however will be different, because in reality most people do not want to harm another. This has been proven by many studies, that is not a common thing for people to be evil or harmful, but this is hard to recognise is every day is filled with crime and violence. LLMs will not kill security, it will change. just like handheld high explosives likely changed a deal too somewhere somehow. |
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| ▲ | littlecranky67 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| pipe bombs attached to consumer drones will be a big issue. I predict drones will become illegal for the private sector within the following years. |
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| ▲ | grim_io an hour ago | parent [-] | | What? If someone wanted to bomb something, they wouldn't be waiting for drones to arrive. RC cars and planes existed for many decades already. |
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| ▲ | designerarvid an hour ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Not entirely unlike XKCD 1958 [0]. "I guess it's just that most people aren't murderers" [0]: https://xkcd.com/1958/ |