> The strongest argument I see for continuing to train much smarter models quickly is the need to build defensive systems against the dangers posed by other AI.

So the best argument for AI is that it's an arms race. We have to keep pushing every boundary because in any case others will, and we will need to defend against them. If this statement is true, then this particular researchers believes the open source Chinese models are not simply distilling, and will continue to improve.

Every ML researcher at Anthropic or OpenAI who makes public statements often bring this logic up. Both companies are vying to be a part of the military industrial complex. This is likely how they will try to convince the government to curtail open models in the future.

"Defensive systems" can be interpreted broadly to include cybersecurity.

But yes, it's an arms race. Saying it's not an arms race isn't going to make it not an arms race. Warning that it is an arms race isn't ethically wrong.

Is participating in an arms race ethically wrong? Maybe you could ask the Ukrainians how they feel about drone R&D?

Getting out of an arms race is harder than it looks, but there's at least talk about "pacing" and that's a start.

Yep. Such a disgusting industry. They created the arm race, push for the arm race, put themselves in position to benefit from the arm race