I can have a formal bet with anyone. No prediction market will ever have a stupid bet like this because anyone who has skin in game has studied it enough to know it is a 99.99% chance

Okay, I "can have" a formal bet with my friend that the sky will be green tomorrow, and I'm sure they'd agree to bet against that. I don't see why you think that's a useful statement in the context of arguing that it's a likely outcome though.