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mikert89 4 hours ago

these just need more compute:

- earn $100: easy to verify, hard to learn

- increase paid subscriptions in an A/B test: easy to verify, hard to learn

but we both know these examples go against the spirit of my point

tedsanders 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Perhaps, but I think a bigger problem than lack of compute is the cost of rewards. Games like Chess and Go were solved long before self-driving, partly because it's incredibly cheap to acquire the reward of a bad board game decision, relatively to how expensive it is to acquire the cost of a bad driving decision. With driving, acquiring the reward can cost you $20/hr for human supervisors to generate disengagements, or $100k if you crash, or $30B if you crash the car into a person in a way that causes your company to collapse (e.g., Cruise).

mikert89 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

yeah but I think you may be underestimating the amount of capital available for compute. if AGI is possible through some 5 trillion of expenditure on computers, there will be money for it.

also, you are underestimating how short a 10 year time frame is. we are close to self driving, the first neural net image model was in 2013. 13 years is a blink of an eye

_superposition_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You bring up an interesting point. Isn't the reward itself subjective in many domains?