To each their own. Personally I will start feeling the AGI as soon as we move from chatting about benchmark results to learn that some lab just announced the discovery of tens of novel treatments for rare diseases.

Maybe I'm too boring but it seems quite pointless to have this same prediction game every time a new model is released.

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kaashif 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

AGI would produce novel treatments for diseases at rates equivalent to what a human can do today.

Which is to say, not that fast.

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azan_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think treatment is not good benchmark - it requires lots of waiting and lots of regulatory work. The better benchmark - in my opinion- would be math discovery.

	▲	indoorfish 4 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		That is an absolutely terrible benchmark. Inference over a bounded search space is not a good measure of what "intelligence" actually is. part of the reason they are using math and not something actually challenging like long distance interstate trucking is because it's so much simpler and easier than what make intelligence intelligent.
	▲	ogogmad 3 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Claude Fable recently proved the existence of complex structures over S^6 (6-sphere). If I had to guess, I think LLMs will be inventing highly original new mathematics within the next year. I think it will be approached as an optimisation problem, targeting how quickly LLMs can solve classes of maths problems as a function of the definitions they need to conjure up to do so.

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doctoboggan 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Wouldn’t that be ASI? I.e. surpassing humans by outputting novel treatments at a far greater rate than normal humans?