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dalemhurley 5 hours ago

OpenAI is killing it now that they are more focused. Killing projects like Sora et al have seen it go from irrelevant to level footing with Anthropic.

Sol is so much better than Fable 5. Then we get Astra (yet to use it) few days after Fable 5.1 (which is very impressive).

Codex is slightly better than Claude Code.

Good on Sam Altman getting back to basics and turning OpenAI around.

kroaton 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think it mostly shows that there is no moat and the only advantage the U.S companies have over the Chinese is more compute. Qwen Max, Kimi K3, GLM 5.3 are really close to Opus/Sol/Fable/Astra and they are open weights.

davidguetta 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

bringing the price down b.c. competition != no moat.

There's not 100 frontier labs, it's not like airline companies

haldujai 2 hours ago | parent [-]

About the same, 5-10, when you consider major (aka frontier) airlines.

Actually not a bad comparison. Both burn massive amounts of up front capital to protect an oligopoly in the hopes their commodity product eventually pays off.

VirusNewbie 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If there was no moat, nvidia and meta would have SoTA models too.

evilduck 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Nvidia does have one of the best completely open models. Open weights are nice but Nemotron is open training data too.

seunosewa 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Meta is awfully close.

dansquizsoft 3 hours ago | parent [-]

lol! Good one...

nwienert an hour ago | parent [-]

Went from years behind to months pretty quick.

amazingamazing 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It is not in nvidia’s interest to be too good at model creation

reilly3000 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

But it is in their interest that their customers can use their models as a base for post-training and LoRAs.

amazingamazing 28 minutes ago | parent [-]

They don’t necessarily need their own models for that

david-gpu 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Why not? Commoditize your complement, and all that.

angulardragon03 3 hours ago | parent [-]

And if they get too good, they risk harming or otherwise killing their golden geese (their customers), who they are heavily invested in.

david-gpu 2 hours ago | parent [-]

How? Imagine an open-weight model comes out that is somehow better than proprietary solutions. Now the marginal cost for the consumer is just the cost of renting the inference hardware, without having to pay the overhead of the owner of a proprietary model. And because it is cheaper, more customers want to use it, and Nvidia will sell the providers the inference hardware that they need.

amazingamazing 38 minutes ago | parent [-]

1. No open ai and anthropic means no buying gpus to train. Now nvidia spends money on hardware training their own models. Opportunity cost plus expense.

2. Any open models created from this will not necessarily need their silicon, see apple mlx.

sensanaty 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

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Razengan 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The "moat" is the "harness", the app.

For most people, the app IS the AI.

And even for its wonkiness, ChatGPT has had the best UX/UI of them all.

The way to win the AI wars in the eyes of the common folk is through the frontend, to be the Apple of AI, as it were.

tonyhart7 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

they don't have moat in hardware either

Chinese counterpart like CXMT and Huawei is begin producing their own chip

You cant block an entire nation level effort with tariff

astrobiased 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I think the moat that China has is energy costs. It's taking learnings from the Bitter Lesson. If you role up scale and compute to the next level, it's energy resources. China has it and sharing open weight models is an effective means of removing the tech moat. This idea has been floating around for a bit now (I'm not taking credit for it).

rgbrenner 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's not energy costs. The US produces about 70% more electricity per capita. Chinese households do pay less than half what US households pay for electricity, but that's because the NDRC sets prices below costs for households. They make it up by charging industry more, and the industrial electricity prices in China are roughly 34% higher than in the US.

spartacusnacho 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They also benefit from the commodification of software/knowledge work since they own manufacturing

keeganpoppen 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

asa123 2 hours ago | parent [-]

why so much negativity and certainty?

andxor 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Sol is so much better than Fable 5

I'm genuinely so confused when people say this with a straight face. Are you talking about coding? Desktop use? Prose? Or something else?

Sol is a much smaller models and it shows. It often misses the forest for the trees.

enraged_camel 2 hours ago | parent [-]

>> I'm genuinely so confused when people say this with a straight face. Are you talking about coding? Desktop use? Prose? Or something else?

Same. It makes me wonder what types of things the person must be working on.

resonious 2 hours ago | parent [-]

This is perpetually an issue with the whole field of AI/LLMs. The experience is so personal. Every time I talk to someone about their use of LLMs for software engineering, I'm shocked by their approaches and experiences. They say "X model keeps missing things" when I rely on it heavily for being thorough. They say "Y always gives me the best results" when I can't stand it.

People will see/think that I'm doing very well with my LLM use, and ask me what I'm doing. I tell them, they try it, then later they come back to me saying they just couldn't get it to work.

zachthewf 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I’ve found Sol performance to be incredibly spiky. It has tremendous IQ and can fix very difficult bugs. But it is horrible at design (both visual and system design), anything that involves thinking about users or UX, and massively overcomplicates almost all work.

ghosty141 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I noticed the same. I wanted a simple crud webapp and suggested an insane techstack involving C#, Razor Pages, MSSQL and more. I went with my planned setup of python flask with an sqlite db which served me well for years.

It's still incredibly important to have a human in the loop correcting design decisions and having good taste.

Atotalnoob 4 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

Dotnet minimal APIs plus mssql is fine for simple crud apps… I would do Postgres, but that’s me.

Swapping mssql to SQLite would also work perfectly

swingboy an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Was your prompt just "I want a simple crud webapp" and that's the extent of it? There's absolutely no way you included the words "python", "flask", or "sqlite" and it still went with a Microsoft stack.

EduardoBautista 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You could have just added “flask SQLite stack” to whatever prompt you added. Just those three words, randomly somewhere in your prompt.

jiggawatts 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> insane techstack involving C#, Razor Pages, MSSQL

Is a very sane tech stack, you're just biased against Microsoft.

Half the world's enterprise apps run on that combination, or a minor variation of it.

Like Java it is full featured ("batteries included") but unlike Java it is relatively terse and actually pleasant to work with.

Oh, and unlike Python, it is very fast, within spitting distance of compiled Rust and C++ web apps.

kyleee an hour ago | parent [-]

There are a million and one reasons to be biased against Microsoft, regardless of the fact that C# tech stack is decent

gruntled-worker 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> massively overcomplicates almost all work

People with high IQ often do this IRL. There's training tension in this area. Intelligence and overcomplication correlate and are hard to extricate.

puttycat 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Intelligence is actually correlated with the ability to simplify complicated things. Occam's razor. Compression as comprehension.

ChadMoran 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Sol better than Fable? What? I've found it to basically be on part with Opus and I max out 2 accounts on both providers every week.

upupupandaway 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Their ads business is also doing well. Not "will recover all compute costs" well, but crossed $1b in a few months.

jeffybefffy519 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Its funny, my experience with Sol has been awful. It really overworks problems and tracks into areas it does not need to...

I just dont get how its good for some, and bad for others. It makes me suspect that the models performance is not even against problem sets and it really is just a probabilistic prediction machine. Which then makes me very skeptical of GPT-6 Astra, because if their big claim is Computer Use then it is probably bad in a bunch of other areas.

embedding-shape 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It is funny indeed, people sometimes with same amount of experience with software development, get vastly different experiences from different models and harnesses.

> I just dont get how its good for some, and bad for others.

If I were to listen to my hunch, it would tell me that it's all up to the prompts that ends up going over the wire (including all the bloat some people have), what workflow/process you use and what the existing state of the project is.

ragequittah 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You have to bake the 'lazy dev'/'keep it simple stupid' mentality into your AGENTS.md and / or the skills you're using to design things. It will take things too literally sometimes so you also have to make sure you're being accurate. Best way I've found to use it is make it ask you clarifying questions about what you're trying to build and have it help design the shape of the thing. Then it writes the instructions in a format it understands.

I've had Claude do the same thing where it goes off and spends 100% of my tokens on 3 functions and an ungodly amount of tests / scaffolding that do almost nothing when I gave it an underdeveloped idea.

fastball 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Codex's lack of auto-mode is what prevents me from using it for serious work compared to Claude Code.

carljungslabtek 4 hours ago | parent [-]

It has had automode for a bit now. I use it every day at work.

fnordpiglet 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Codex is missing a few things that Claude code has had for some time like defined plugin subagents and a few other things. But overall it’s fairly capable. The biggest gripe I have is that codex really restricts context window sizes and compaction leads to a lot of grounding work, and overall codex GPT is too literal in many situations - it’s follows direction slavishly, and when subagent reviewers are used, they tend to find increasingly obscure “flaws” on the instruction following impetus, and the harness agent takes them literally as issues to fix even when it leads to bizarre outcomes. For instance I’ve had several runs where it tries to end up building a hermetic system with sha hashing of everything (including operating system binaries and kernels, tool chains, etc) to certify test results are valid, etc. I have to sort of watch it carefully to be sure it’s not drifting into some insane yak shaving corner, which it will happily do for weeks on end.

Claude has the exact opposite problem, especially opus-5, where I literally can’t trust it to print hello world without taking a shortcut, or just simply lying and saying it printed it when it didn’t, behind a giant wall of inscrutable text. I find it very ironic that Anthropic is the vendor of the lazy lying cheating model that does almost everything you tell it to it do.

I’d really kill for something that balances instruction following and loop escaping behavior better. Fable 5.1 does seem a lot better, feeling more like 4.6 behavior, and honestly Sol has improved as well. I’m pretty psyched for the next generation, as I think the competition has heated up so much that things will improve really fast to the point of marginal utility opportunity being increasingly close to epsilon.

swingboy an hour ago | parent [-]

You can enable the 1 million token context window and adjust when it compacts in your config.

> model_context_window = 1000000

> model_auto_compact_token_limit = 900000

I believe it does consume your usage a bit faster though.

John7878781 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This is what Google needs to do and is probably why Demis has stepped back a bit

Implicated 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Sol is so much better than Fable 5.

... looks around ...

bsndjdjdjdj 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]