99.9% with the right harness? Ok, we're at AGI then.

Prediction:

We will now see the goalposts moved towards "well, a human costs less / is more efficient" - that will prevail for a few months until they come up with some other test that humans can do easily but is hard for the bots. This cycle will continue for ever and in 25 years, despite having hyper intelligent embodied robots or whatever, we'll still be arguing about if the singularity is here and if we're at AGI for the rest of my life most likely.

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WASDx 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

They explain it here: https://openai.com/index/how-two-settings-tripled-our-arc-ag...

TLDR: The official ARC harness throws away old context and reasoning. No real-world harness is this bad, the model has to re-learn the game repeatedly. OpenAI basically just added standard compaction. Their harness is still "general".

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emp17344 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Then why is unemployment around 4%? You believe we have AGI and yet it can’t do anyone’s job?

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piloto_ciego 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Didn’t I just see a thing about how actual unemployment is at like 24% a few days ago?

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raspasov 5 hours ago | parent [-]

According to that interpretation, ~24% is one of the lowest ever.

https://www.lisep.org/tru

(I have not gone down the rabbit hole to understand how they achieve that 24% number)

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_superposition_ 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Workforce participation is different than unemployment. Didn't click the link but I suspect that's the case with your 24%

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cute_boi 2 hours ago | parent [-]

24% sounds correct to me. Many of my friend who completed phd are currently unemployed .... And, some of them started doing random job like uber to make a living.

If government don't step up and regulate outsourcing like 100% tax, big problems are coming up.

	▲	asadotzler an hour ago \| parent [-]
		24.9% is damn close to the 24.8% average over the ast 25 years, for the thing it's measuring-- jobless, people working part-time or involuntarily, and workers earning less than $26,000. Since 2000, it's been over 30% for more years than it's been under 24%.

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jhonof 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

We were already there with Opus 5 -> https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/nvidias-harness-hit-100-arc-a...

	▲	NitpickLawyer 4 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		AFAICT nvda's result is on the 25 open problems, while this submission is on the "semi-private" set, ran by the arc people themselves.
	▲	piloto_ciego 6 hours ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		I rest my case.

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dgellow 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The goal moving is by design, that’s why they use something as ill defined as AGI

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slopinthebag 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

That’s because AGI, like a lot of terms, has no meaning besides what each individual subjectively projects onto it.

	▲	piloto_ciego 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I agree, like the average human isn't generally intelligent. IMO, AGI is literally no different from ASI, though people think it is. Like, Imagine you have 1,000 generally intelligent humans working for you (which nobody is really) and you were to point them at your pet project. That would be amazing!

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baal80spam 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> We will now see the goalposts moved

It's already happening :)

	▲	piloto_ciego 6 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Hilariously it is, I'm just reading more on this!