| ▲ | holmesworcester 8 hours ago | ||||||||||||||||
The people who've thought the most about this put it differently: Think of a new, superintelligent model as if it was a new v1 Starship launching for the first time, with a full fuel tank. On the one hand, rockets have existed for some time, and some have gone to space successfully, including by this company. On the other hand, this is a tube of metal full of highly explosive liquid going faster than most human objects ever go, for the first time ever in this novel and state of the art configuration. If someone said, "really, the first Starship exploding is just at one end of the probability distribution, where the other is that everything goes fine and all its passengers have a nice trip in space," would you get on that rocket? Or, more aptly, if you and every other living human was already on that rocket, would you push the launch button? The analogy works because superintelligence is, like rocket fuel, an extremely powerful force that has a default tendency to break containment and go boom (consume lots of energy and heat and matter in a chain reaction, to pursue more intelligence to pursue whatever goal it is pursuing.) | |||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | stillpointlab 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | ||||||||||||||||
> superintelligence is, like rocket fuel, an extremely powerful force that has a default tendency to break containment and go boom what evidence do we have this is the case? | |||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | d_silin 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | ||||||||||||||||
Current AIs are closer to bottle rockets than to the Starship on the intelligence scale. Some property damage already happened, but you can't master the art of rocketry without trial and error. | |||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | konmok 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | ||||||||||||||||
Eh. An intelligence with perfect knowledge of the entire universe, unlimited memory, and infinite processing speed, would have a tendency to go boom. But the real world has limits, and intelligence, even superintelligence, does not equate to godhood. Some tasks are still hard no matter how smart you are. Plus, we have no real reason to think LLMs are anywhere close to AGI or ASI. So arguments like these are just distracting from the very real, very present danger that LLMs pose: information breakdown, societal collapse and environmental destruction. In other words, this is criti-hype. | |||||||||||||||||