> The prediction was early, overestimated how long of a tail RIM would experience, but how wrong was it? Was the prediction of some utility?

Wrong enough that the utility is seriously diminished. Predicting a specific quantity dropping to a specific level at a specific date is a lot more valuable than saying “those guys are cooked”.

And even if some minuscule utility existed: why should predictors be so coddled by their observers? We should be demanding more rigour from predictors rather than looking for new and creative ways to forgive them for their folly.

RIM is dying now -> useful for stock trading

RIM is dying in the next four years -> useful for life planning.

Anyway, i just wanna get on record that i predict an ai bubble pop event in the next 12 months.