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iLoveOncall 9 hours ago

Easy to claim things as wrong without prodiving any facts.

Can I try?

> But when people bring him up, they're of course not generally citing his anger

Wrong.

> Google has been increasing the relative priority of revenue over the user experience over time

Wrong.

> I'm curious what people do after being on the wrong side

Wrong.

Some of the claims categorized as "wrong" are also completely true, such as training hitting diminishing returns. New models are barely an improvement and most people I know stuck on Opus 4.6 over any newer one for example.

Exact same thing for the claim "the fact we're running out of high quality training data and we're hitting the walls of scaling laws, in the training paradigm, these models aren't getting better. What we're seeing today is pretty much what they're always gonna be like".

If anything, model performance has regressed in actual use (i.e. not benchmarks) for the past half a year.

aesthesia 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> Some of the claims categorized as "wrong" are also completely true, such as training hitting diminishing returns. New models are barely an improvement and most people I know stuck on Opus 4.6 over any newer one for example.

OK, but the first instance of a claim of diminishing returns was in February 2024, when GPT-4 was the best model available. Do you really think improvement since then has been minimal?

marcosdumay 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, since 2024 the improvement has happened only in a few contexts, and the most famous¹ LLMs have also regressed in many contexts.

1 - Their numbers have also exploded, so I have no idea of any general rule.

iLoveOncall 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I personally think improvement has been minimal since ChatGPT was released actually.

minimaxir 8 hours ago | parent [-]

That's not defensible.