Shaheds are absolutely still a problem in the Gulf. They're the #1 tool used to disable maritime shipping, if it didn't work then the Strait of Hormuz would be open right now.

In your opinion, what is keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed if not the Shaheds? Why can't all of the trapped vessels leave if the Shaheds don't work and the mines are cleared? The OCIMF sees them as a very legitimate threat to maritime traffic: https://safety4sea.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/OCIMF-Loit...

> And after pipelines are built, straight will no longer be needed

The Strait will still be needed to import fertilizer, bulk goods, construction materials, cars and chemicals. Like I said; pipelines are a contingency that does not solve the maritime shipping problem except for crude. You can't send most imports through a pipeline.

The Gulf is also used for water desalination, which provides the majority of freshwater to many Gulf states. Without fresh water or food being produced, America's Gulf allies will have bigger problems on their plate than just making America/Israel happy. The UAE, Bahrain and Qatar are all begging to deescalate before they pay the price for American and Israeli adventurism.

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anovikov 2 days ago | parent [-]

Ships will carry interceptors, they are cheap, they are currently made for like 2-3K apiece. They can't handle jet-powered Shaheds, but those are a lot more expensive and won't be available in quantities nearly as big. And interceptors (electric too) for them are on the way, all that lacks is a range channel.

	▲	bigyabai 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		The US Navy has already expended thousands of interceptors. It didn't end the war, open the Strait or protect civilian traffic. Iran will keep this precision strike capability. There are still ships, oil derricks and desalination plants that are within range of the Shaheds. Therefore, it seems to me that Iran has a direct mechanism to escalate the humanitarian suffering if the US also decides to impose a catastrophe on Iran. Your original claim that things cannot escalate seems to contradict your qualification of "perhaps" working in defense. There's a lot of escalation left on the table, and not enough interceptors to shoot down every Shahed.