The strait is still closed, import of fertilizer and bulk materials has effectively ceased: https://news.un.org/en/story/2026/08/1168190

The onus is now on the United States to escort ships in and out of the Strait with the US Navy, for shipping to resume for US allies. Otherwise, Iran has the initiative and the means to ransom anyone in the Strait for insurance. Israeli intelligence estimates say that the IRGC possesses as many as 80,000 operational UAVs[0] and can manufacture upwards of 400 Shahed 136 drones in a day. The United States does not have enough interceptors to escort ships even if that manufacturing was cut by 3/4ths. And there are no doubt tens-of-thousands of drones in reserve, earmarked for the littoral defense mission.

So, how can things escalate? Iran can use cheap weapons to terrorize global shipping for longer than the US Navy can sustain itself in the Gulf. MLRS artillery and drones can deny the Marine Corps a steady foothold or a safe supply chain to any of the Iranian shore islands. Tehran is too far away from America's allies to attempt a Thunder Run with the Army, and a demonstrable risk to the Air Force if they use drones or jets to support their ground formations.

If the goal of this war truly is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon, then America has to react. Iran has thousands of centrifuges in storage, domestic uranium mines and a stockpile of LEU and MEU[1] on standby.

[0] https://www.newsrael.com/posts/611y4wktzum

[1] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profil...

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anovikov 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Well, only way to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon is denying them electricity. Trump can do it easily but it literally means "ending civilisation" (knock out all thermal plants and monitor with infrared sensors to ensure they are not restored, there is no way to hide a working power plant). But it means no city life. Maybe it will come to that. Iran needs to be made irrelevant, and this can be done by working around the strait by building enough pipelines, in 1-3 years they will be gradually commissioned, and Iran's leverage will no longer exist.

	▲	bigyabai an hour ago \| parent [-]
		Shaheds can be launched on battery or generator power as long as there's gasoline. Iran's satellite targeting is managed through Chinese intermediaries[0], and Trump isn't going to bomb China over it. So the denial of naval traffic can continue effectively forever, considering that Shaheds can be made with lawnmower motors and homemade fiberglass. Building pipelines is a contingency, because Iran's leverage over the strait will exist until the US dismantles the cell-like resistance structures of the IRGC. A few years of this will have disastrous effects on the tourism-dependent Gulf economies, and could force mass migration if desalination facilities are attacked and fertilizer is denied import. If the rich people leave and the poor people die, then Israel's victory over Iran is pyrrhic for America's allies and the global order. Escalation is therefore a sociopathic choice, for Americans. [0] https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/04/15/iran...