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ericmay a day ago

Someone else shared this article [1] and I was reading a quote I thought was interesting:

  “[Canada] has a large dairy producing constituency that it wants to protect, so they put a cap on imports that can be accessed at a competitive rate. That's what we call a ‘TRQ’ (tariff rate quota),” says Becky Rasdall Vargas, senior vice president of trade and workforce policy at the International Dairy Foods Association. Under the TRQ, Canada accepts a certain amount of dairy products duty-free, without tariffs.

  "Rather, Rasdall Vargas blames the dispute on “a systemic set of failures” by Canadian administrators that intentionally prevent American dairy exports from reaching the import cap. These protectionist measures are intended to support Canadian dairy farmers. One rule, for example, requires that Canadian dairy processors be the primary recipients of American dairy products.

  “If you’re a U.S. exporter, you're going to want to sell to your customers, not to a competitor,” she says. “Another one is that retailers aren't eligible to obtain an import license quota in Canada. There are layers upon layers of rules that ultimately prevent U.S. exporters from being able to fill those quotas.”
So I'm not sure the quota is as straightforward as many folks are making it out to be and there's more nuance there. This, assuming it is accurate, is really interesting and helps explain why US producers don't even meet the quota that was set.

[1] https://www.farmprogress.com/farm-policy/the-real-story-behi...

Throaway826 a day ago | parent | next [-]

The main reason the Dairy Supply quota is in place is to stop US dairy producers from dumping dairy into Canada.

That's why the USA has never reached the tarriff limit. The big producers there would just dump 20 million litres at once if they could. They aren't interested in 1 or two.

And if they were able to do that, the Canadian producers would go under. So its kinda simple, the Dairy Supply system is there to protect the Canadian Dairy industry. If it was removed, we would be flooded with cheap, low-quality US milk.

The entire Canadian dairy industry produces less milk than Wisconsin alone. Why does the US need the Canadian market? A: They don't, they just want it anyways.

vintermann 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Maybe it's obvious, but you left out subsidized. US dairy production is extremely subsidized compared to Canada's. It's not in any sense "free trade". The subsidies would allow the US dairy industry to destroy Canada's (it might even without the subsidies, but the subsidies guarantee it). Once the local industry was destroyed, the US producers/government would be free to increase the price. No country wants that, which is why things like staple foods are subsidized and tariff-protected anywhere in the world where not doing so would give a large neighbor/bloc leverage over them.

snayan 17 hours ago | parent [-]

That's just a convenient talking point for our government. The model in Canada is effectively a regressive tax on consumers in the checkout line. It conveniently allows for our government to talk about how they don't subsidize farmers, and have a clean budget on that front, but I would prefer to see a model that was actually funded by government taxes such that it could be a progressive tax born more by wealthier Canadians rather than lower income ones being hit hardest.

I also have doubts that our current model is the best way of achieving the goals we had in mind when the programs were created in the 1970s. I know the error bars are quite sizeable, and it's not quite apples to apples, but recent studies that suggest our supply chain management in dairy, eggs, and poultry, costs approximately $244pp per year in higher costs. That's over $10billion per annum Canada wide, equivalent to 2% of the federal budget! I have been discussing this with someone in another thread for days, and the more I look into it, the more I feel like we really need to take another look at the implementation of this program. Dollar amount breaks my brain.

lfuller 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Protecting your own country's production capacity and industry doesn't come without cost. It likely would absolutely be cheaper if we allowed our core industries to fail and be replaced wholesale with American exporters, but that's not what the majority want for the country.

As we're seeing with this trade war as a whole, tightening economic integration with an asymmetric partner puts your sovereignty at risk as well. If we have no industries of our own, and are utterly dependent on a single unreliable superpower, then we lose the freedom to decide on our own future as the rug could be pulled out from under us at any time. The only way to mitigate that risk is to diversify trade and ensure self-sufficiency in our own industries.

snayan 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes. I am well aware of this. I just find it hard to believe that dairy, poultry, and eggs are some special snowflake type of farm that requires the quota and supply chain management, while every other type of farm, we can manage with direct subsidies.

For reference, there are about 190k farms in Canada, 8% of those farms are dairy, poultry, and eggs whose viability is ensured with supply chain management. The other 92% of farms, are managed with direct government assistance (AgriStability, AgriInsurance, AgriInvest, and AgriRecovery). The latter costs the government $1.5-$2 billion most years. While the recent report on supply chain managed farms suggests the cost born by Canadians to be around $10 billion. Even if that number is off by an order of magnitude, we're looking at $1 billion for 8% of farms, and $1.5-$2 billion for the other 92% of farms.

All I'm saying is it seems like the solution to help ensure viability in dairy, egg, and poultry farming is wildly inefficient and merits a look from first principles. Is there a solution to achieve the same outcome at a lower cost? The world has changed drastically since the policies were implemented in the 1970s.

I admit I am far from an expert, but I have spent an inordinate amount of time reading about this shit out of curiosity in the past couple days. Broke my brain when I saw the numbers around the costs born by canadians in the checkout aisle due to supply chain management.

win311fwg 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The elephant in the room is that the government is legally required to buy back the quota if change were to happen, and that is an estimated $50 billion dollar bill. Which actually doesn't sound so bad compared to your $10 billion per annum figure, but the $10B is hidden so it is easy to let it be ignored. A one time $50B payout will stick out like a sore thumb and no politician wants to attach their name to that.

When they did it for tobacco back in 2009 it was only around $300 million on the table which isn't nearly as mind boggling and thus much more easily forgotten. Not to mention that very few Canadians realized that tobacco was ever supply managed to begin with so it easily few under the radar. Anything that affects dairy will be headline news.

snayan 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah, I know that's a colossal elephant to deal with. I mean, I would hope that whatever reforms could lower costs enough that if you did a model similar to Australia, and had a temporary levy to pay for the buyout, the end cost to consumers, even with the levy, was lower prices than prior to the change. That was the case in Australia.

And I know nothing about the market, but I can't imagine it's overly liquid, the fact that all farmers would receive cash for their quota, would definitely be attractive to most. It's already heavily financialized and borrowed against.

And then, you could even do something like NZ did where all the dairy farmers got together and created a coop for processing, NZ is now the largest exporter of dairy in the world! If some of the quota levy went to getting this off the ground, you'd help the farmers retain a bigger piece of the pie with vertical integration of the supply chain. And, hopefully also compete globally and become net exporters, increasing the size of the pie.

I dunno, I have no idea what the fucking solution is, but after spending a bunch of time in the weeds of this shit over the past couple days, I am like, we have created a monster, this can't be the most effective way to achieve the underlying goals of the program.

win311fwg 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> dairy farmers got together and created a coop for processing

That isn't going to go over well with the big three (Saputo, Agropur, Lactalis) who own ~75% of the processing quota. I suspect if you dig even deeper you will find it is they who hold the political capital that props up the dairy supply management system. If it were only farmers involved it would have been gone ages ago.

snayan 18 minutes ago | parent [-]

Agreed on all fronts. But, if we're entering an era where we have to be less reliant on our trade relationship with the US, we need innovation to compete, and the status quo of Oligopolies in so many fucking industries really needs to be confronted imo. Doubt it'll happen, but it's an increasingly ugly situation.

longitudinal93 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It should also be noted that Canada does not permit dairy products produced with Bovine Growth Hormone, which makes our industry less competitive that American where the practice is widespread.

win311fwg 8 hours ago | parent [-]

> does not permit dairy products produced with Bovine Growth Hormone

It should also be noted that this is misleading. The dairy products are permitted to be produced with rBGH and you will almost certainly find some on the shelves as not all dairy products in Canada come from Canadian cows. What isn't permitted is giving it to cows in Canada as it is concern for reasons of animal welfare.

I know you already know that, but the audience needing your message doesn't and they are prone from messaging like that to think there is some reason to be afraid of the milk even though it perfectly satisfies Health Canada concerns. It wouldn't be allowed across the border if it were deemed dangerous. It is worth reminding that Canada happily allows all and every drop of American milk across the border as long as someone is willing to pay the tariff.

retvrn a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The broader context is that approximately any country that wants a healthy, stable dairy industry (often regarded as a component of national security) has to provide government support to their farmers one way or another. “Stable” is particularly important for dairy because recovery when lots of dairy cattle are culled is expensive and takes years.

The US and Canada use different, incompatible means for accomplishing this, so you can arbitrarily paint either as “cheating” the other by saying “well (Canada/The US) does X to the tune of (a dollar amount) and the other does zero of that, they’re cheating!”, i.e. by lying by omission.

Because of the way the US subsidizes theirs, Canada could be vulnerable to dumping. So there are protections in place. This is not remotely a big deal so long as both sides are competent and operating on something resembling good faith…

gruez a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>So its kinda simple, the Dairy Supply system is there to protect the Canadian Dairy industry. If it was removed, we would be flooded with cheap, low-quality US milk.

Flooded? Cheap? Yes. Low quality? Doubtful. If quality were the sticking point, you'd expect this would be amicably resolved with equal standards for both domestic and imported milk.

conorcleary a day ago | parent [-]

Ok, if not blanket-ststement lower quality, it's definitely less regulated than CDN dairy.

gruez a day ago | parent [-]

>it's definitely less regulated than CDN dairy.

Again, if that were the sticking point that can be fixed with rules around imports. The fact that these negotiations always end with quotas and/or tariffs strongly suggests the reason is political (ie. lobbying).

maest a day ago | parent [-]

It's not wild to imagine Canada wants to protect a domestic food producing industry.

Same how all countries, including the US, heavily subsidize and protect their agricultural sector.

I'd call this strategic, not political (although ofc it involves lobbying, again, like in every other country including the US)

gruez a day ago | parent [-]

>It's not wild to imagine Canada wants to protect a domestic food producing industry.

It's still protectionism, even if it's for a "good cause". During the mercantilist era protectionism was considered the obvious thing to do. After all, why would you want to make yourself poorer and enrich your enemies in the process? That doesn't mean it wasn't protectionism.

>I'd call this strategic, not political (although ofc it involves lobbying, again, like in every other country including the US)

For every policy that benefit some interest group there's almost always a fig leaf "strategic" justification for it. Jones act? It's to protect domestic ship building. Banning discounted medicines from abroad? They aren't been certified safe by the FDA. Tariffs on sugar? Food security and American Jobs™, of course!

vintermann 19 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The US dairy industry is heavily subsidized. Countries generally don't let another country dump heavily subsidized products into their economy if it competes with local industry (provided they have any choice).

gmerc 18 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Pray tell, what's with the whining about Chinese overproduction then?

EdwardDiego a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The US has the same on dairy imports into the US for the same reason.

yostrovs a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It follows then that the USA also wants to protect its industries, such as timber, oil and gas, and maple syrup, from Canadian producers that are happy to dump their stuff south of the border for cheaper than US competition.

badc0ffee a day ago | parent | next [-]

The US sets the price it pays for Canadian oil, a discount from the market price.

I don't know about timber, but the US maple syrup industry is healthy, just unable to keep up with demand. I think that's a consequence of geography and the time investment required to get mature trees, not Canada undercutting.

yostrovs 12 hours ago | parent [-]

Canadians don't negotiate when selling their oil? US just sets the price? Amazing.

badc0ffee 9 hours ago | parent [-]

I don't really know how the discount is built into the price, but it's a result of the fact that only about 10% of the oil Canada produces can make it to a port to be sold to non-US buyers.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Canadian_Select

throw0101a a day ago | parent | prev [-]

> […] from Canadian producers that are happy to dump their stuff south of the border for cheaper than US competition.

The USD and CAD are not 1:1, as the CAD is 'lower value', so of course stuff made in Canada will generally be less expensive. (The trade off is that imports are more expensive for Canadians.)

canadiantim a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The main reason for the dairy supply quota is to protect a politically powerful cartel, everything else is justification

kps a day ago | parent | prev [-]

> The main reason the Dairy Supply quota is in place is to stop US dairy producers from dumping dairy into Canada.

Yet the same rules apply to European cheese: limited quantities that can only be imported through an established dairy cartel member. Anti-Americanism is a convenient marketing tool, along with the nostalgic myth of the independent family farm. The reality is oligarchs like https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saputo_Inc.

ericmay a day ago | parent [-]

I’m dumb and misread the comment. Please ignore.

kps a day ago | parent [-]

It sounds like you misread my comment.

ericmay a day ago | parent [-]

Sorry, I did. I thought you were accusing American companies (which they can be) of being oligarchies. You’ll have to forgive me, I’ve been doing the lord’s work defending the United States a bit here and trying to clear up confusion that others have with respect to trade.

withinboredom a day ago | parent [-]

I didn't know the US had royalty... You should consider moving to the EU if you want to do work for lords and ladies.

ericmay a day ago | parent [-]

That doesn’t make any sense. But happy to answer any questions you may have!

realo a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I am Canadian. Never, ever would i knowingly buy any dairy products from the USA , at any price.

We have cows too, and farmers.

ericmay a day ago | parent | next [-]

I strongly support buying local where possible, especially for agricultural and farming products. My general algorithm goes: buy in my local area -> city -> region -> state -> country -> western-aligned. I try to buy a lot of American made products in general because of that but even for things like dairy you can find high quality producers that, while more expensive, at least aren’t Big Dairy (for milk), whether that’s Canadian or American or otherwise.

It’s one thing for the government to create protectionist policies, it’s another to have folks like me or perhaps you who practice it in person with our daily economic choices.

asvitkine a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Do you never have Philadelphia cream cheese? Just wondering.

bvanheu a day ago | parent | next [-]

Philadelphia is seen as a cheap product in Canada, similar category as Cheese Wizz etc.

realo a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

In Canada Philadelphia is made from Canadian milk.

However i try to avoid ultra-transformed products like cheez-whiz and philadelphia. Those are not even allowed to be called "cheese" here, they must have some qualifier in front or after the word.

earlyriser a day ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I have one rn in he fridge. It's "cream cheese product" because probably cannot put "cream cheese" in the name. It's made from Canadian milk, not imported.

ncphillips a day ago | parent | prev [-]

In Canada It’s made with Canadian milk.

There’s also other brands of cream cheese.

eigenspace 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

So, here is one of the major problems with having a US administration run by liars, crooks, and bullies: your arguments lose all credibility.

I'm a Canadian who is pretty unhappy with our protectionist dairy lobby, and thinks there probably is a bunch of unfair trade barriers erected on our side by the dairy lobby.

I'm probably more open to this line of argument than the majority of Canadians. However, when I see an American who has literally anything to do with their federal government start making these arguments, I more or less have to assume it's either a lie, or at best a truth that's going to be twisted, blown out of proportion, and used to undermine the sovereignty of my country.

The furthest I would go right now would be to support a relaxation of our dairy protections in dialogue with the EU, and then whatever scheme we arrive at can then be applied to trade with the USA at a later date (including requiring dairy imported from the USA to meet EU-level food safety standards).

The USA simply cannot be trusted to be anything like good-faith negotiators.