Its not the end of programming, its the change from how we program.

Do we still write code in Assembly? No, we moved over to a form of programming that allowed more people, to easier program.

Did it mean that the assembly guys lost their jobs? No, their knowledge allowed them to still program better then the rest, in the new paradigm world.

Did the creation of visual programming UIs like Delphi, VB, etc result in the end of programming because the entry level was lowered even more? No ...

But people who have no programming experience are now programming. So?

My dad who has at most basic PC knowledge ended up making a few simple programs 20+ years ago, because he had a need for it. He did it with a combination of easy programming language + visual interface like VB, and googling... That did not make him turn it into a job.

My old boss who had no programming knowledge (bank/sales guy) used Microsoft Access to make a ticket system to monitor the employees. With cost calculation, hour tracking etc.

It did not remove the need for programmers, people with actual experience. We also used those new tools like visual UI, or easier programming language (compared to assembly) to work faster, create bigger programs, ...

AI baaed programming is just the same. I have seen non programmers create impressive programs, just like i have seen non-programmers create impressive programs in Visual Basic.

BUT ...

When issues are found, this is where experience actually matters. Even if we do not program anymore in the old way by writing every word, its that experience of understanding how something works, that makes the difference.

Just like the guys that has gone from 100% asm, to maybe 1% transitioned, so are we all transitioning.

No matter how good a transcompiler is (yes, they existed before AI), you always need to fix issues and that requires domain knowledge.

No matter how many programs your transcompile, it means nothing without actually supporting those programs. Making software is the easy part, keeping it supported, bug fixed, etc matters. People may be crapping out tons of programs with AI, most of them are abandonware because creating is sexy, maintaining is not. Guess what the real job of most programmers is? Yea ... the boring part.

AI is a tool, just like how we moved from low level programming language, to compile helper, debuggers, syntax highlighters, to visual interfaces, ... and all of those tools are their to make our work faster, easier, .. to be more productive and squeezer more out of person.

We harvested grains manually, then the first simply tools came. It did not remove farmers. The arrival of the tractor that made harvesting even easier. It did not remove farmers. We now have combines that run on GPS and can harvest themselves and do the work in a hour, that will have taken 1000 people in a day. And yet, farmers still exist. What happened is that people can do more, vs them doing it manually.

Its not the end of programming, programming simply changed in the way its done. And some people have a hard time accepting changes. Its not the end, it never is, its simply the changeover how its done.