I'm expecting it to somewhat collapse. I don't know if it'll go back to pre bubble prices (here's to hoping), but I do expect a pretty sharp decline around 2030... probably not before then.

Basically everyone that makes memory is building new fabs, meanwhile I'm not sure how much longer AI datacenter demand for ram will last. I think the decrease in AI ram demand and the new fabs will likely coincide leading to a collapse in pricing.

That is, of course, assuming the memory manufacturers don't pull their favorite trick and collude.

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FeepingCreature 4 hours ago | parent [-]

If there's a decrease in AI ram demand, it will not be because the models get better. Models getting better will increase RAM demand, because it grows the part of the economy that models are useful for. Classic Jevon's Paradox.

	▲	cogman10 2 hours ago \| parent \| next [-]
		I'm expecting the drop for a couple of reasons. For 1, AI datacenter builders have said that they have more equipment than they have places to put them. Leaving a ton of hardware shelved while you wait for datacenters to build out is bad business to say the least. For 2, I think we are nearing saturation for the usefulness of AI. I certainly could be wrong, but I don't really foresee there to be a bunch of new exciting usages of AI that will ultimately justify the continued buildout.
	▲	HDThoreaun 17 minutes ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Yes, but a right now a lot of the RAM buy is for demand that doesnt exist yet. Big tech is projecting AI demand and making sure they have enough compute to fulfill that, so AI demand would have to increase even more than they expect, otherwise theyll build their datacenters and then slow down the amount they buy.