The problem is the way the US credit/debit card systems are setup, there's not much of a discount/surcharge that would make me switch usage to debit.

If my credit card number gets stolen, zero money ever leaves my account. It simply gets contested before the monthly bill is even due, and cancelled. I have probably had number stolen 5 times in 20 years, and its never cost me a cent. Zero dollars every left my accounts even temporarily.

If my debit card number gets stolen, the money is out of my checking account immediately. Mortgage payments and other bill payments might fail, and the onus is on my to chase up the bank to get charges reversed and money returned to my account.

n=1 of course. All US mobile carriers provide a substantial discount if you establish autopay with ACH over debit or credit. I've seen the same with Xfinity. It will take time, but we'll get there.

T-Mobile, AT&T follow Verizon on discouraging credit cards for bill-pay - https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/tmobile-att-verizon-incent... - August 10th, 2023

Xfinity Automatic payments and paperless billing discount (APPD) - https://www.xfinity.com/support/articles/automatic-payment-p...

> You can get a $10 discount on your monthly bill if you: Have Xfinity Internet and sign up for automatic payments and paperless billing with a stored bank account

Walmart was one of the larger supporters of FedNow during public comment period, as they experience billions in interchange costs per year, and are building instant payment support into the Walmart Pay component of their app to avoid these costs.

Walmart Plans Instant Bank Payments, Cutting Out Card Networks - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=41593450 - September 2024

Walmart FedNow instant payment public comments: https://www.federalreserve.gov/SECRS/2019/December/20191227/... [pdf; 2019]

> “It surprised me,” Henry said of adoption of Walmart’s first iteration of pay-by-bank, which is available online but hasn’t been marketed to customers. “It’s certainly surpassed our expectations of the amount of customers that have registered and actually use the payment type.”

> Walmart’s upgraded pay-by-bank offering will be rolled out in 2025. The transactions will occur over bank technology provider Fiserv’s NOW Network, which integrates with The Clearing House’s Real Time Payments network and the Federal Reserve’s FedNow. Until now, large retailers hesitated to launch real time payment options because many banks were not connected to an instant settlement system, meaning their customers would not be able to use the product. NOW Network aims to connect to as many banks as possible to reach 100% of deposit accounts by combining its own network with RTP and FedNow.

My understanding is that Meta is also pushing ad buyers to invoicing vs credit card payment.

Meta Ends Credit Card Payments for High-Spend Ad Accounts: Mandatory Monthly Invoicing Starts April 1, 2026 - https://www.auditsocials.com/blog/meta-ends-credit-card-paym... - March 31st, 2026

Like the slow decline of check volume, I see the same here. Credit card rails will exist for some time, perhaps another 10-15 years, but they have likely peaked from a volume perspective. If you're a merchant, surcharge when you can, and work towards on boarding and offering customers cheaper payment rails (imho). If folks want to pay the ~3-4% surcharge, enable them to, that is a choice if they want the benefits of using a credit card. But we should not all have to eat the cost for their benefit when less expensive options are available.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/sp/cb03-charted-the-end-of-...

https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/check_commchec...

(I work in financial services adjacent to payment systems, thoughts and opinions always my own, this is behavioral economics at scale, as always think in systems)