In an abstract sense, yes. Compilers let programmers work at a higher level of abstraction. LLMs bring it to an even higher level, though the abstraction is much leakier.
For the time being, a good understanding of programming and domain knowledge gets you much farther than without it. There might not be room for as many (professional) programmers as before, though.
That's because the institutional knowledge was passed along through the act of coding. Skills that I learned in Assembly and FORTRAN are applicable to even modern programming languages...but not to "natural language."
I don't agree. Certain optimization skills are learned on the job if people work in specific areas of compilers or performance.
Also the reality is that modern CPU microarchitectures are so different from what old-school assembly programmers used that their supposed optimizations are likely to be counterproductive.