1. LLMs will enhance the “normcore” - which is fine, and probably slow down churn (which may or may not be good - see JavaScript)

2. The problems are not how fast or how well people develop code. See https://youtu.be/5ybAhgAaEBo?si=C6q-fWXHlEO74kNi where an ex CTO of eBay is proud he doubled 3000 developers time to get out features while totally ripping into eBay’s pathological Management etc

3. The problem has never really been “we cannot write software” - software that is actually in production and working is a tiny sliver of the phase space of software - if it’s in production and working the golden path that software is the top 1% of the 1%

4. The problem is the software that did not get made because the org does not know how to ask for it

That comes from three dimensions

- org pathology (people with the cash cannot agree on best approach)

- software literacy (people with cash don’t know that something is not only possible but common)

- org business model / mission (the guy in video made a deep point - eBay has not grown in real terms since 2008 and is getting its lunch eaten by more targeted competitors. So any CxO who plans to get their bonus based on “growing the revenue” is on a loser. So they fall back to “make a plan, follow the plan, get bonus for hitting your milestones”

This is partly why government departments seem awful and it takes politicians to change what is being measured

So incentives need to be aligned - so change the metrics internally to make them work for the mission.

If you don’t have a mission perhaps that’s where to start

Look at Microsoft - once “a PC on every desktop” was reached they really struggled for a couple of decades.

Perhaps we should just kill all companies once they stop growing …

Edit: One could see that startups are merely experiments in PMF - and once that has been reached, then a small cofe can be left to milk the cash cow while rest of the cash is returned for new experiments (perhaps even using medical drug “endpoint” measures