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koe123 2 hours ago

While knowledge is always great, I would encourage people not to seek advice from successful people like this (survivorship bias).

Moreover I am not sure it is even good advice? Would you advise a 17 y.o. to learn how transistors work or how to code (i.e. is LLM training the right level in the stack)? LLM training, a discipline where relevant work is already out of reach for 99.999% of budgets really as essential as this post implies?

qsera 2 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

>Would you advise a 17 y.o. to learn how transistors work..

Hell yeah. Transistors are pretty awesome.

embedding-shape 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> I would encourage people not to seek advice from successful people like this (survivorship bias).

Personally I don't see the problem, as long as you're aware there is survivorship bias involved here.

What's the alternative really, seek advice from unsuccessful people? That seems worse :)

Personally I do both, read about what worked for people, also read about what didn't work for people, then ignore both and do whatever the fuck I want.

armcat 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

It's best not to take advice on direction of careers from anyone. It's better to find and work on things that interest you, and then take advice from people that are amazing in that specific field. In mid 2000s in Australia all the "top people" were telling me not to get into a software engineering career because it was dead. It's certainly challenged right now, but it took off during those 15+ years.

embedding-shape 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> It's best not to take advice on direction of careers from anyone. It's better to find and work on things that interest you,

Agreed, my previous stated "ignore both and do whatever the fuck I want" approach has worked out very well for me in life, people should probably focus on identifying better what their gut tells them, rather than what randoms on the internet thinks and writes.

wiseowise an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Kids don’t even know what it is, even less actually feel what it is. At 17 you think that it won’t hit you, that you will be the one to survive until you don’t.

InsideOutSanta 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> seek advice from unsuccessful people

Intuitively, I would guess that they have a better grasp of what made them fail than successful people have of what made them succeed.

retsibsi 2 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I don't know; I think people in general are just not great at this. Successful people tend to underrate luck and overrate the brilliance of their own decisions, but the rest of us are prone to either reversing that and blaming everyone but ourselves, or being so determined to take accountability (or just depressed) that we become overly self-critical, or simply not understanding why things happened the way they did and reaching for any explanation that resolves the chaos into something narratively satisfying.

gf000 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yep, many successful people greatly underappreciate the effect of simple dumb luck in their lives. And often they just make up complex reasoning chains, even wholly believing them, that more of it was in their control/talent, etc.

Nonetheless, there are many successful people I would gladly listen to for advice, though they are often successful in a different meaning than what venture capitalists would use (e.g. parents with great kids, managing to keep a healthy work-life balance, happiness, and maybe even having time to spend on some cool hobby project -- you are heros!)

embedding-shape 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Intuitively, that'd make sense if that unsuccessful person eventually found success, otherwise who knows if they actually picked up what made them unsuccessful in the first place?

InsideOutSanta 17 minutes ago | parent [-]

I think it's reasonably common for people to understand what makes them unsuccessful but be unable or unwilling to resolve the problem.

For me, I know that one major reason for putting an upper limit on my success is my inability to form effective professional relationships. I know I should go to events and talk to people and use these relationships to my advantage, but that's just not something I've ever been good at, and I find it so incredibly unpleasant that I also just don't want to do it.

ff10 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I would seek advice from people who have a theory of why or why not they were successful. A lot of those results were happening in very specific contexts and usually should not be regarded as a blueprint, but as inspiration to whatever I do.

epolanski an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> seek advice from unsuccessful people? That seems worse :)

Not sure why would you think so.

Inverse reasoning is very powerful, and unsuccessful people can give you plenty of "don't do this mistake", which the survivors would not even think about.

embedding-shape an hour ago | parent [-]

> unsuccessful people can tell you teach you plenty of "don't do this mistake",

But how can I know for sure that that particular mistake is actually why they were unsuccessful? Has exactly the same issue as listening only to successful people as they hardly know what actually made them successful most of the time, but they still compose large blog posts with their reasoning for why.

Again, I still think my approach of reading both but then regardless go my own way is the preferable approach, at least for me, ymmv.

24 minutes ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
jasonkester an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Personally I do both

That’s what you get from listening to “successful people”. You get to learn about all the things they tried that failed, then the things that did work on that 24th try, which was successful.

The “survivorship bias” people always seem to assume that the “survivor” lucked into his fortune on his first try ever, so he can’t have learned anything, so we don’t have to listen to him. But that’s seldom the case.

I’ve written about this before:

https://expatsoftware.com/Articles/survivorship-bias.html

IshKebab 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Seek advice from people who have had a normal level of success. Not a one-in-a-million level.

otherme123 an hour ago | parent [-]

Veritasium has a good piece for this kind of bias:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I

An advantage that is not "advisable", like being born in january, in a rich country, in an above average family, or just having luck, might have more influence on the outcome than any conscious action. It is almost sure that one-in-a-million level people only edge over the other 999,999 they competed with is just "have more luck".

bodash 13 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-]

IMO these kind of advices never matters. Any individual still needs to make tens or hundreds of little decisions (every day) themselves, and that's what really makes all the difference.

cultofmetatron 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Would you advise a 17 y.o. to learn how transistors work or how to code

how many of us out here are doing work directly in what we got a degree in? I majored in economics and now I'm a CTO.

I would absolutely advise a 17 yo to learn how to code, understand how transitors work and how to code an llm. even if he never works on llms, you basically end up with a kid with applied knowlege of statistics, math, physics hardware, logic and a whole lot of practice in critical thinking.

jbstack 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Moreover I am not sure it is even good advice?

I think it is. He isn't saying to learn how to train a LLM so that you can go on to train LLMs. He's saying to learn it so that you gain a deep understanding of how LLMs work. Ordinary startups can still benefit from things like training or fine tuning highly specialised smaller models, knowing how to select and configure an appropriate model for the task at hand, knowing what software to use and why, understanding what's going on behind the scenes instead of treating everything like a black box, having a higher level of intuition about LLMs generally, etc.

Most computer science courses do in fact teach things which are lower level than coding, such as how transistors work.

markb139 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

As a 17 y.o (way back in the last century) I didn’t need to be advised to learn about transistors. I just had a thirst for the knowledge. I would encourage everyone to learn something about transistors. They are one of mankind’s most useful discoveries.

jhatemyjob 19 minutes ago | parent | prev [-]

I just don't think he realizes how saturated it got over the years. Or maybe he knows at a conscious level, but not subconsciously.

In 2000 (his era), it would have been really smart to study the source of Linux or Apache. Would have paid dividends over decades. Cuz that knowledge was so rare. The number of people hacking on LLMs now dwarfs the number of people hacking on web servers 30 years ago, by several orders of magnitude.

And if you turn back the clock even more, I mean just even having access to a computer, let alone owning one, would have put you at a massive advantage.

I don't know what to call it. The pioneers should be respected obviously, but at the same time you need to understand that for them, the game wasn't nearly as played out as it is now.

I just don't think you can afford to be dicking around with LLMs like you could afford to dick around with random Linux distros 20 years ago. Too many people willing to do it for free these days.

You don't wanna end up being the 2030 equivalent of a certain SNES emulator developer, or maintainer of a package manager for jailbroken iPhones, I mean the list goes on and on. Being a hacker doesn't automatically give you a path to being rich, or even making a decent living. It hasn't been that way for a while.