| ▲ | oersted 2 hours ago |
| There's this dilemma where in theory there's a ton of demand for engineers that can do real LLM machine-learning, but in practice there are very few available positions and entrepreneurship opportunities. The reality is that an incredibly small minority of companies in the world do any real training or optimisation. It's unnecessary and inefficient for most purposes unless you are fully dedicated to being an LLM company, and still then it's a struggle. Those few that do train, they spend most of their budget on compute and have relatively small teams. Getting experience in this field requires having access to very expensive hardware to begin with. And the skills will be quite hard to convert into any real value for someone, leading to a decent income, unless you have a ton of funding from patient investors, or you have decent contacts in Bay Area networks to get hired at the right place. With all due respect, paulg is in somewhat of a bubble, this is not congruent with the global situation. |
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| ▲ | yobbo 23 minutes ago | parent | next [-] |
| Yes. It's like looking at the (Apollo) moon rocket launch and then suggesting teenagers should learn to build rockets in their garages for the coming space age. It is viable as a toy project, but there are vanishingly few career opportunities. |
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| ▲ | bmacho 8 minutes ago | parent [-] | | It's like looking at the early internet and then suggesting teenagers should write browsers as their projects instead of webpages. |
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| ▲ | kevmo314 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That's like saying the only way to do real engineering is with Google-scale Borg deployments. You can do quite a lot on very little hardware, r/StableDiffusion is a prime example. |
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| ▲ | oersted 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You can do plenty of "real engineering" under normal conditions. But specifically when it comes to LLM engineering, no there's really not much you can do, they are called "large" for a reason. You can play around at small scale, but those lessons you learn will not be very relevant to the real problems in the market. Sure you can gradually climb the ladder by demonstrating your skills bit by bit and getting access to more resources. It has very good prospects if you do manage to push through. But it's a hard and risky path, and you will not be able to get any interesting results for the longest time. For a young middle-class student, it just doesn't make much sense. You can do much more impressive and impactful things with your time without getting into that black hole. I know how to build an LLM, I know plenty of fellow young engineers that do too. It's really not that complex. But they can't do much with it without capital or access. Good engineering has never been a bottleneck in this field, it's been all about having access to capital and taking smart but dangerous risks burning it on compute, without much idea of how long you need to keep burning for. There's still no end in sight, some are still managing to convince investors and keep burning, and we are seeing progress, but the business case is still unclear. If you want to get in that game, go ahead, but it's not something I would advice the average young engineer. | | |
| ▲ | stymaar 43 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | > . But specifically when it comes to LLM engineering, no there's really not much you can do, they are called "large" The “large” qualifier dates back to pre-transformer language models, where even training a multi-million model was hard due to how poorly it scaled. GPT-2 was a large language model, despite being only 124 millions parameters. Due to how much high quality data is readily available, anyone can now train a sub-billion (L?)LM on commodity hardware. And I'm personally convinced that pretty much any enterprise use-case of an LLM (except coding) is better served by a fine-tuned small (<2B) model that is trained specifically on the task, rather than a generalist frontier model, so learning the engineering around fine-tuning is a key skill that companies will realize they need sooner than later. | | |
| ▲ | mike_hearn 16 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Why? Oersted is correct, for any size class you can find an LLM that is free and well trained at this point. They are highly adaptable even without fine tuning, in-context learning is still superior to fine tuning in most cases also. And real world fine tuning is mostly about data gathering and cleaning. The actual adapter training is automated and put behind simple APIs. I saw my first language model in action in 2014, I was writing blog posts about them back in 2016. In recent years, like many of us, I spent some time learning ML frameworks to see if it'd be a fun career pivot. Eventually I concluded a few things: 1. It doesn't seem especially creative. All the frontier labs have nearly identical model personalities, capabilities and even app designs. We're not seeing them differentiate from each other, implying that the design space might not be that large. In which case the opinions and unique approaches of specific engineers aren't that important, they are interchangeable at the right level of skill, and what to do next is usually obvious to everyone. There are counterpoints, like the rumours that Noam Shazeer came back to Google and immediately fixed some critical bug in the Gemini pipeline, and I totally believe the span of skill in ML is huge. And in the past it seems that creativity and ideation mattered a lot more. If you read about how the transformer paper was written, that's a great example of what really interesting work looks like. But nowadays that skill seems to surface in optimization and debugging more than something that will really help you stand out long term. 2. It doesn't seem like an especially big job market. A lot of ML jobs were wiped out in recent years by the rise of LLMs. Lots of NLP specialists etc were suddenly replaceable with a cheap API. The jobs that remain have compacted into a small number of companies. It's a small community which greatly increases career risk, especially as so many are unprofitable and/or have strong ideological requirements. 3. Using the models on the other hand is a very large design space, and has a lot of scope for creativity. I see use cases for AI everywhere, but most companies seem to stop at putting a chatbot on their website or asking Copilot to rewrite an email before they send it. A lot of companies have hollowed out their IT departments over the past twenty years. It feels like a new golden age of consulting work could be upon us. I really don't think I'd tell a 17 year old to learn how to train LLMs. Learn how they work and how to use them, sure, absolutely. |
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| ▲ | reacharavindh an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > I know how to build an LLM, I know plenty of fellow young engineers that do too. It's really not that complex. I’m 40, and I don’t.I took that abstraction for granted and “left it to the big labs”. However I want to build my own LLM for learning purposes. On needing big expensive hardware.. necessity is the mother of great innovation. Perhaps 18year olds trying to build their own LLMs in constrained resources environments will result in ground breaking ideas of achieving better intelligence than the one we currently have…. The world needs pragmatic folks who work at a higher abstraction and make LLMs useful, AND also folks who think why not “this other way”? And build newer ways to do fundamental things. Given the usefulness of current LLMs, I would certainly encourage anybody to try and build their own LLMs, and see what they come up with… Heck if they build a rack full of old laptops and run something with it that could be done “better” with modern servers, I’d still appreciate the learning running things on those little machines bring. | | |
| ▲ | rrr_oh_man 25 minutes ago | parent [-] | | > On needing big expensive hardware.. necessity is the mother of great innovation. Perhaps 18year olds trying to build their own LLMs in constrained resources environments will result in ground breaking ideas of achieving better intelligence than the one we currently have…. 10000%. |
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| ▲ | danpalmer 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Agreed. It's hard to learn unless you have access to quite high end hardware, and even paying by the hour is expensive. There's a low ceiling on what you can learn without doing training runs. You can however learn everything you need to know to get on the career ladder as a software engineer on a regular home PC. | | |
| ▲ | jbs789 an hour ago | parent [-] | | While the topic here is narrow, the concept is broader. Do you take the first step or rule it out because you don’t yet see the complete picture. As a teenager I never hesitated to try things out. As a young adult I wanted the whole picture. Now I’m back to playing / trying things out. I kinda wish I’d not given it up. PG being a bit older and reminiscing - I bet he’s in that bucket too, whereas someone trying to establish themselves professionally probably (aka me early 20s) wants to see the path. |
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| ▲ | DanielHB an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | But can you _sell_ that? If you can't you can't get a job doing it. | | |
| ▲ | kevmo314 25 minutes ago | parent [-] | | I suspect most who worked at Google did not work on Google infrastructure before getting there. | | |
| ▲ | mike_hearn 7 minutes ago | parent [-] | | No, but the skills Google needed (back then) were just normal programming and sysadmin skills scaled up. I had eight interviews that covered Linux sysadmin, programming, debugging, networking, maths and more. If Google hadn't wanted me there'd have been plenty of other companies who needed those skills. If you look at model training jobs a lot of the work at this point is creating RL gyms (normal programming work), but most people still think the work is all neural architecture research. Doing the former is fine but won't teach you much about how to build LLMs, whatever that means now. Doing the latter is a very hard market to get into: not many jobs and requirements are often like, "you must have published at one of the following conferenecs". Prior experience is assumed. Most of them seem to treat Google as ML university and source of new recruits. It's understandable given the cost of training runs. |
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| ▲ | teaearlgraycold 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Interesting/capable diffusion models are much smaller than similarly interesting language models. But yes you could always scale things down to learn the fundamentals. | | |
| ▲ | kevmo314 26 minutes ago | parent [-] | | There are plenty of similarly tiny language models in the realm of tts too. Gatekeeping what’s interesting misses the forest for the trees. |
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| ▲ | epolanski an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| +1, I have a friend, math PhD that's been working on ML research 5+ years in London yet he has not been able to find any position. The only jobs that he found he was highly over qualified or paid very little. In any case, it doesn't look like there's this crazy rush to hire all ML talent, even the one that understand the math and technology deeply. |
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| ▲ | yobbo 16 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | As always and everywhere, it's who you know (and who knows you) that matters. | |
| ▲ | embedding-shape an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | > +1, I have a friend, math PhD that's been working on ML research 5+ years in London yet he has not been able to find any position. Maybe people simply don't want math PhDs but something else? Since 1-2 years ago I started doing consulting/freelancing in the ML space, but more on the infrastructure, deployments and similar stuff, as a general purpose developer, and I have a waiting list of clients interested in more work, some of them even trying to recruit me to work for them full-time as well. I'm based in continental Europe, fwiw. | | |
| ▲ | michaelscott 39 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | How've you gone about getting into this btw? I have extensive experience in infra and pipeline rollout but have struggled to find freelance clients for this kind of thing. Would be great to tie it into ML as a learning opportunity there | | |
| ▲ | embedding-shape 36 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Spent a year of freetime catching up on everything and learning as much as possible, started sharing what I've found works or not, write a bunch of comments on HN and elsewhere, and have a email in your profile, eventually people will find you if you put out good stuff :) Also bunch of past workplaces who've adopted AI in various ways who reach out once they find out what my current focus lies, but that's harder for others to replicate unless you've already had a career as a developer. |
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| ▲ | ballooney 38 minutes ago | parent | prev [-] | | This only proves the original point which is that there is not much demand for actual machine learning expertise because that is only carried out in a small number of places and what demands there is is for the more basic software carpentry like infrastructure and operations rather than the actual technology and Engineering side of things | | |
| ▲ | embedding-shape 33 minutes ago | parent [-] | | What parent says about "there are very few available positions" for "engineers that can do real LLM machine-learning" is fair, yeah, I'd agree with this. I don't think the "incredibly small minority of companies in the world do any real training or optimisation" part is necessarily as true, as some parts of the work I do get is about helping them optimize training and infrastructure around training. Mind you, none of this is for building LLMs from scratch, it's 99% fine-tuning existing checkpoints. I'd also agree with "paulg is in somewhat of a bubble" regardless of this, which is worth remembering whenever you read his content. Same goes for any person living in SF, and dare I say the US. But also, YMMV, I live and work in Europe, probably why I have this perspective. | | |
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| ▲ | willtemperley 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I think companies of all sizes will want their own models, or at least customised ones, for their own specific use cases or competition and security issues. 1. Both training and optimisation will get significantly cheaper and easier quickly. 2. Politics will probably get even more insane before a potential reprieve on the 20th of Jan 2029. 3. The big AI firms will become part of the surveillance capitalism network, if they're not already. So I think for self-protection a lot of companies will be looking near to medium term AI independence. |
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| ▲ | oersted 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The argument is sound, but the maths don't math for now, and it's unclear when/if they will. For the time being, unless you truly have millions, the outcome from training will be very net negative, while focusing on building on top of existing AI will yield amazing things if you apply the same talent and effort. When it does get cheaper, then it will be easier to acquire the skills and experience too, and the struggle you went through by trying to do it now will be somewhat wasted. Besides, I am well versed in this field, and it is not rocket science. There are plenty of software engineering domains that are a lot more challenging, like high-end graphics, large-scale data engineering or kernel programming. People will learn to train LLMs when people want them to. | |
| ▲ | Tarq0n 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Right, just like companies don't use SAAS. In reality, enterprises are happy to offload even risky tasks to others as long as they get some contractual guarantees about their data. Would they like more choice in who to buy from? Yes, but not enough to in-house such a specific discipline. | |
| ▲ | rhdunn an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The cost of training a model from scratch is going to be cost prohibitive for the vast majority of companies (even if renting the hardware needed for the 1-2 month training time). It's an interesting learning exercise, and some of the things learned can be applied to other parts of the process. There's also the issue of needing a huge amount of data needed to get decent weights. Fine-tuning a model or LoRA based on the companies data set is more feasible but you're likely going to need several runs as you test/try out different base models, parameters, etc. This is why there are a lot of fine-tuned models on huggingface based on base or instruction-trained models from the larger AI companies that have released open weight models (Microsoft, Google, IBM, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen, etc.). Training is limited on memory first (storing training data and weights) and computation second. Realistically you need to own or rent 2-8 H100/B100 devices or Google's TPUs. The majority of workflows for a company providing AI capabilities are likely best solved by tailoring a system prompt for the chosen model, evaluating the prompt and model with tools like promptfoo, and then running it on a compute cloud provider (including AWS Bedrock). If the company is big/financially well off enough they could look at buying the hardware needed to run it on their own servers. For other uses like agentic software development you'd need to spin up a suitable model on a compute cloud provider (or local hardware if the model is small enough) and then tell your IDE/editor to use that model. You would need some way of benchmarking and evaluating the models to see if they are capable of doing the tasks you need. -- There have been some tests done by people on YouTube that suggests that Qwen 3.8 27B is a decent model, but your needs may vary. | | |
| ▲ | Foobar8568 an hour ago | parent [-] | | Even for most organizations, testing AI systems is too cost prohibitive, so they YOLO in production, including public facing systems. |
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| ▲ | pjmlp an hour ago | parent | prev [-] | | Most companies that build physical goods don't care for one second about their IT department other than how much money they can save per month, starting by outsourcing whole of it, thus they have little use for internal LLMs. | | |
| ▲ | Foobar8568 an hour ago | parent [-] | | And it's across the industry, thinking banks, private banks, insurance, pharamcy etc don't outsource their IT, including development...
I believe US outsource even more than Europe on this matter. |
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| ▲ | Zylokloto an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| We finetune LLMs. Small ones like Gemma 4 for semantic tasks. There are plenty of areas were we need people to do this for insurances, banks etc. AI/ML exists on many levels. |
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| ▲ | joshuakcockrell 37 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This is like saying, “teens shouldn’t learn how to make their own game engine because no one is hiring for that.” You’re missing the point. Understanding how Unity works fundamentally makes you a better Unity dev. |
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| ▲ | kenjackson 15 minutes ago | parent [-] | | Except knowing how LLMs work don’t actually provide much understanding for using them. People don’t use LLMs the way we’ve built on most other tons or platforms. It’s more learning Unity hoping to be a better gamer. |
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| ▲ | dukeyukey an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Did you read his comments on this? It's not to actually do LLM research stuff, it's to trigger and unlock ideas. |
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| ▲ | spwa4 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That's not true, because everyone, everyone, everyone seems to want to do training. Which results in a 50 person company training, say, a voice model that then fails, because it's just not good enough. In reality the problem is that it gets blasted out of the water by a much worse architecture trained on 10000x the infrastructure. And while I'm sure the freshly brought in ML student came up with a 10%, even 30% better architecture, it just doesn't matter. (and never mind that even OpenAI hasn't really solved a voice model yet. Try it. It can probably match 2026-quality call centers, but it's no substitute for an actually empowered human) ... and yet, if you look at what hyperscalers are getting paid for ... comfortably more than half the income is training. Which makes no sense on so many levels. e.g. https://valueaddvc.com/blog/inference-chips-vs-training-chip... (I get it, not great first source, but st |
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| ▲ | physicsguy 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The big question is whether companies hold enough proprietary data to do useful things that for e.g. Anthropic, etc. can't easily replicate. For some very niche cases I think this is probably the case but for the vast majority, the company's data isn't as useful as they think it is or anywhere near the size needed. | |
| ▲ | oersted 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Everyone says they want to do training, because it's sexy and an easy way to justify raising mad funding rounds. Some manage, most don't. I don't know where you are located, but in EU, in China, and yes even in Silicon Valley, the vast majority of companies do not do any real AI engineering. There's nothing wrong with it, it's just not a smart path for most purposes. You can do amazing things without training, and if you try to train, you cannot get anything amazing unless you burn millions. Very few people can afford to play the long game and cross that dessert. And, sure, you will not get far without good engineering, but good engineering is definitely not sufficient and is not the primary bottleneck. | | |
| ▲ | the_gipsy 25 minutes ago | parent [-] | | It took a long time to cross that desert, and no sane company would want to get stuck in a desert, unless it's specifically an R+D "desert crossing" company. |
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| ▲ | aaron695 an hour ago | parent | prev [-] |
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