Your second paragraph invalidates your first.

If I need to be a domain expert anyway, the value of the tool goes down by orders of magnitude. Same if I need to first break the task down into pieces and keep reviewing all the output. That sounds to me like >80% of the work I'd need to do anyway.

If I need to design and understand all of the code anyway, I might as well skip the whole process of repeatedly fixing the subpar-at-every-level LLM output and write it all myself.

Personally, I've found the greatest value in asking for simple tasks, like wiring up APIs, generating boilerplate, bug finding etc. Anything that requires effort to do but results in either very little or very simple output, so that I can easily verify its correctness.

But give the LLM anything remotely complex to generate and it cakes its pants.

That is my experience as well. I get a (subjective) speedup between 1 and 3 for parts of the code I'd consider critical and where I check the output tightly, and 5-20 for menial work OR for important code that's well isolated into its own module such that its quality doesn't matter because I can have it rewritten easily if it doesn't work as expected.