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johnnyApplePRNG 15 hours ago

discounting your most valuable model 20% today without a better model in the wing ...

pushing your API subscriber base towards a competitor with an exclusive 50%, openrouter, the other day ...

slashing paying codex subscriber usage limits to the point that many are cancelling long term contracts they've had with the company ...

is altman playing 4d chess or something I'm not aware of?

because from the outside, each of these moves looks pretty bad on the face of it

teruakohatu 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> without a better model in the wing ...

How do you know they don’t?

> is altman playing 4d chess or something I'm not aware of?

Anthropic just removed a discount on Fable, while people are simultaneously getting sick of reading fable and opus talking about “the load bearing texture” and “color of the blanket”. It’s become excruciatingly painful to read the output during coding sessions.

Maybe it’s just good marketing.

atmonostorm 14 hours ago | parent [-]

Just wait until you see 5.6 Sol sneaking in “evidence”, “provenance”, and “gate” everywhere.

Every model has its own tells, just a matter of which ones you recognize the most prior to losing your sanity

szundi 13 hours ago | parent [-]

[dead]

laichzeit0 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> without a better model in the wing

I believe Astra is the next model beyond Sol? They used it for https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/

Vespasian 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

My personal best case scenario is that LLMs are commodotizing and that the "We'll rule the world with our frontier models" vision of OpenAI and Anthropic is not working out.

They can and probably will still be very successful but what they pitched so far is not going to work if their is any meaningful competition not too far behind.

But who knows. VC money allows them to try a lot of stuff before their eventual IPO.

euue 8 hours ago | parent [-]

What you are seeing is not typical VC money - institutional investors are involved now.

Do any of you here actually know what you’re talking about?

LaurensBER 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It seems that they lack a holistic strategy. All these decisions probably make sense in isolation but together they create a huge mess.

Given the increased pressure from open weight models (still 6 months behind but now more than good enough for most use cases) the frontier labs really have to step up their game.

Switching is as easy as typing /model in most harnesses so there's effectively zero moat.

solenoid0937 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Their margins are already quite high and this is a play to bleed customers from Anthropic, they will of course raise prices after IPO.

euue 8 hours ago | parent [-]

lol stop posting about this stuff unless you have insider info.

Revenue recognition, classification of costs, do you know what these are? Doubt it

simianwords 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Or maybe… you know.. their margins are that high and by passing down the efficiency gains to consumer they can get market share and induce more demand?

What’s 4d chess in this?

surgical_fire 12 hours ago | parent [-]

OpenAI bleeds money. They need to keep raising money like crazy because of that.

Their margins are obviously not high, particularly on subscriptions

simianwords 11 hours ago | parent [-]

This announcement wasn’t for subscriptions though so what’s your point?

surgical_fire 11 hours ago | parent [-]

My point is that it requires a lot of willful blindness to ignore how unprofitable they are, to believe that they are in any way in the position of sustainably lowering prices.

simianwords 11 hours ago | parent [-]

You are wrong and the margins are pretty great on API. Do you want to have a bet when they go public?

surgical_fire 6 hours ago | parent [-]

I only bet when among friends. Nothing against you, I just do not know you personally.

But I am waiting patiently for their S1. It will provide ample entertainment.

simianwords 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Ok when it happens, I’ll link to this comment in any case