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cherryteastain 13 hours ago

Doing that in the middle of the AI bubble would be a huge systemic risk to the US and world economy. Expansion of the US economy is now largely driven by the colossal amount of data centers being built. No one anywhere in the world would invest in risky data centers, LLM company IPOs etc if they could get a 30y 20% bond. Financial institutions like investment banks, hedge funds rely on the AI musical chairs to justify the trillions of commitments on their balance sheets. A Volcker style rate hike would trigger a dash for the exit and cause the collapse of some of these institutions, risking a domino effect rippling through the entire economy.

Plus it'd also massively increase USG deficits since all the debt that's added and rolled over would be financed at that elevated rate. At that point, cuts would amplify the above domino effect (cf. Kalecki Levy equation) reducing tax intake, but no cuts would mean unleashing a debt spiral.