What's the basis for concluding that is was extracted from US consumers? Is there good data on tax incidence for this situation?

The notion (right or wrong) is that consumers payed for the tariffs. Target may have not passed on the cost at the time but they still made a $1B profit. Now they are getting $1B on top of that. The consumers that might have payed lower prices (Target could have lowered prices if the tariffs were not in effect) do not get any kind of refund.

That's a good point. We were assured that lots of companies were "eating the tariffs", and cutting profits, or even running in the red temporarily to keep consumer prices from rising. That was notable in contrast to 2021-2024, when companies passed all expense increases along as fast as they could.