I listened to a great podcast on this just a month ago - too bad that I thought all of this would obviously be priced in already… https://virological.podigee.io/51-21-cancer-vaccines-how-the...

I think the "expected value" was priced in, but regardless of the result, this trial would move the stock price towards that direction.

Biotech is one of the very very very few areas of the stockmarket where specialist knowledge generates alpha.

Trolling through random biotechs, learning about their tech, and investing in the most promising applications of that tech in the most impactful areas is something that happens somewhat on publicly traded markets. With tech, most of that happens pre-IPO.

Even if you were to optimally price in all available information you still have uncertainty of what will actually happen. i.e. A 1 dollar coin flip has an expected value of 50c before it’s thrown and it will collapse either to zero or to one after the uncertainty is resolved.

Hard to price in the political factors now involved in Moderna's success or lack of success.

I don't believe the efficient market hypothesis. However even if you do, new information has arrived and that will affect the price.