I agree with most of what you wrote - the energy transition has been happening for a long time now. Indeed, my argument that Trump's malfeasance is causing countries to accelerate plans for energy independence wouldn't even be possible if costs for renewables hadn't come down drastically in the last few decades.

But it's undeniable that the deglobalization that is occurring, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz (not to mention issues in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait), is causing many countries to accelerate their plans, if just for the simple reason that the cost pain now makes the economics of renewables all the more favorable.