You are largely correct for the pre QE years. But with QE, bonds further out the curve have been purchased by the Fed, and the yields for such maturities have been artificially suppressed. Warsh, at on time, really cared about this mispricing of risk. We'll see how he feels now that he's got his hand on the rudder and the orange colored man breathing down his neck.

There has been a distinct lack of QE the past few years, here is the Fed’s balance sheet charted: https://www.macrotrends.net/3003/fed-balance-sheet