As a longtime climate activist, I'm at the point where, reading this, I feel nothing anymore.

The coming shock is not going to be fixed with geoengineering, simply because GE takes more time than we have left. This is because it will take another five to ten years for the necessity to become widely apparent, and another five to ten to get the geopolitics and geoeconomics sorted (if ever.)

We'll be going into it also having splashed out for datacentres instead of cloud seeders or whatever.

And all this ignores how utterly fscked GE is as a strat anyways. The most plausible variant involves white skies and drought in places we can't afford it, and the less plausible variants are almost laughably worse, or involve breakthroughs that might not happen, even with AI, and almost certainly won't arrive on our preferred (ie. desperate) schedule.

I am afraid, and rightfully so; the shock is on its way, and behind it, the Great Bottleneck.

This year's coming El Niño famine in the global south is just the start.

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