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epsteingpt 6 hours ago

No one serious is worried about American solvency. The paper says 50% over the next 10 years, but even most economists misunderstand how the monetary system works.

There are so many other issues to worry about at the moment more immediate than solvency.

root-parent 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

>> There are so many other issues to worry about at the moment more immediate than solvency.

The U.S. government spends about one-third! (roughly 33% to 39%) of individual income tax revenue strictly to pay the interest on the national debt and that is not even paying off the principal balance itself:

https://budget.house.gov/imo/media/doc/cbo_baseline_february...

A raise in interest rates for treasuries, can bring this into 50% to 60% within days.

Yeah...worry about other things...

softwaredoug 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That 33%-39% goes back into stimulating the global economic system where America is at the center. To people like me that own US Treasuries.

You’re not wrong. But it’s not as simple as 33-39% disappearing into a black hoe.

root-parent 5 hours ago | parent [-]

You are trying to pull yourself up by your own bootstraps...

epsteingpt 3 hours ago | parent [-]

Correct - no one can stop the fiscal train!

root-parent 2 minutes ago | parent [-]

Love the user name...Would love to have an LLM trained on Epstein writings...

lotsofpulp 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Why is the individual income tax revenue important to compare to interest costs? Total interest cost as a percent of total revenue seems like a more holistic comparison, which is 15%.

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/feder...

Grombobulous 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The word in the headline “solvency” versus the phrase in the article “debt crisis” is a major difference.

To your point, I don’t think anyone has to be worried about American solvency, but a looming debt crisis doesn’t seem like a stretch of imagination at all.

Zigurd 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Our creditors will be reliable because of American soft power. Do you think we could lose that in single presidential term, much less a year?

Wait...

bilekas 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> but even most economists misunderstand how the monetary system works.

It seems to be more of a subjective topic to me. Otherwise we would all have a perfect plan and never any monetary concerns. Highlighting weak links in the system is I believe a perfectly healthy thing to do. A sanity check would go a long way these days.

danesparza 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Tell that to the Romans.

wowoc 5 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The Romans couldn't manufacture new cash by flipping bits in computers' memory

cherryteastain 4 hours ago | parent [-]

They did the equivalent in their time which was cutting the precious metal content of their coinage.

epsteingpt 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The Romans didn't have the Federal Reserve.

TSiege 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The Romans used the gold standard the US does not

d--b 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

When enough non-"serious" people believe it, they still sell the bonds, and shit can hit the fan pretty quickly.

DarkmSparks 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The US ticked all the boxes that are credited with the break up of the USSR last year aiui.

Anyone not taking that seriously is in for the most hilarious of surprises.