| ▲ | thelastgallon 6 hours ago |
| What happens if US becomes insolvent? Is USD going to be inflated? hyperinflated? Will other currencies appreciate or just devalue their own currency by the same percentage to keep up the exports and continue to earn USD for oil? |
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| ▲ | ahnick 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| I'll tell you what is going to happen, b/c it is happening as we speak. The U.S. Government is soft-defaulting on the debt by devaluing the currency. (The debasement rate is somewhere in the 7%-8% range) There will never be a real default, but it is likely that the USD will lose reserve currency status. The U.S. Government has $114+ Trillion in total debt. (Something like $325,000 per person in the US) We are never paying that off. The only way we can do anything about it is to grow the economy and devalue the debt via inflation. |
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| ▲ | matwood 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > but it is likely that the USD will lose reserve currency status To what though? Even if we accept the US and USD have issues, there is no other currency even close to be able to step in. | | |
| ▲ | mikewarot 22 minutes ago | parent | next [-] | | It doesn't matter who/what gets it next, what's important is that we're about to take a 60-80% haircut on our standard of living. It's what happened to the British when the lost it with the Pound Sterling, and now it's our turn. Most people don't remember what hard money is, and why it's important.[1] [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hard_money_(policy) | |
| ▲ | cjs_ac 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | To all the other currencies that are currently used as reserve currencies, other than the US dollar. There has never been a single reserve currency in the world. |
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| ▲ | _ink_ 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | But who will take over world reserve currency status? | | |
| ▲ | upboundspiral 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | World reserve currency was solved by Keynes and Joan Robinson in the 1940s.
What you do is have a currency no country controls that acts purely for exchanging one national currency for another. Give it to the united nations or something. If you take a national currency and make it a world reserve currency then the nation that does do has problems with balance of trade, deficits, and mathematically screws themselves over. This is because you currency becomes overvalued compared to those of over countries, meaning your domestic manufacturing has problems competing, among other things. We already made the mistake of one national currency becoming the world currency post WW2. I hope its not a mistake the world chooses to repeat. | | |
| ▲ | ahnick 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | This is what cryptocurrencies do, but remove the need for an intermediary and codify the rules in software, so it is much harder (near impossible?) for politicians to manipulate the money supply. |
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| ▲ | ahnick 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It will likely be a cryptocurrency or perhaps a basket of cryptocurrencies. You essentially want a way to store wealth directly on the Internet as it is the fastest and easiest way to reassign ownership of money or collateral. The nice benefit too, then is the U.S. (and no other country as well) is subject to the Triffin Dilemma. | | |
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| ▲ | Havoc 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Nobody knows. There is no precedent for that happening in a post globalisation world. Think sht would get very real for everyone fast both inside and outside the US. Global economy can’t even deal with a ship stuck in the suez without wobbling… |
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| ▲ | Tangurena2 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > continue to earn USD for oil? Iraq started taking Euros for oil. Shortly after that, they were invaded. Venezuela started selling oil for Yuan. Shortly after that, their president was kidnapped by American troops. Iran is selling oil in Yuan. Shortly after that, American bombs started falling on them. There is a very strong incentive for oil producing nations to only accept USD. |
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| ▲ | ksbd-pls-finish 3 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Do American people ever wonder "are we the baddies"? If this is an accurate description, I think everyone would agree that this is a bully behaviour. And arguably evil and opposite to the "free market" it champions officially. In fact, is China or Russia involved in similar planet-scale military enforcement? | | | |
| ▲ | bluGill 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | While the facts are not wrong, they are not compelling as a description of things that were building for years before the currency changes. Iraq/Venezuela were both collecting US ire for decades before the currency attempts. (Not supporting US actions on either - but currency was not a factor in what happened) |
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| ▲ | 317070 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| If the US becomes insolvent, that would severely impact the USD. But other currencies will not try to follow the USD, there would be no point in that. The USD would just lose more status as an anchoring point. The US is also not a major oil exporter, so presumably most oil will trade for other currencies, rather than try to sell for an inflationary currency. In short, if the US becomes insolvent, the rest of the world will largely ignore what happens in the (at that point) 8th economy in the world, and mostly try to untie their economy from it. |
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| ▲ | petcat 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > The US is also not a major oil exporter I believe this is wrong? USA is the largest oil producer in the world, and also one of the 5 largest oil exporters. | | |
| ▲ | gruez 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | "Largest producer" != "largest exporter" | | |
| ▲ | cmiles8 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | The US is the largest exporter of oil and refined products. Saudi Arabia is the largest exporter of crude oil. | |
| ▲ | petcat 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yes I said that. Largest producer, and 4th largest exporter. |
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| ▲ | GJim 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > and mostly try to untie their economy from it. That is already happening. The rest of the world is finding the likes of China to be more stable and predictable trading partners than the USA. | | |
| ▲ | mrngld 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Absolutely no one serious thinks that, but when you feel like you need to diversify you don't have to find a like-for-like replacement. Any port in a storm. Just consult Google. All a country has to do to find itself on the receiving end of punishing Chinese trade actions is being mildly critical of China in the wrong way, and next thing they know their exporters to China report being held up for months. The EU has taken offense at how China kicks around smaller EU members, Australia has been on the receiving end of it more than once. If you'd said the EU might be seen as a relatively more stable trading partner, that may be true, the EU does seem to be fairly happy deindustrializing itself. Though it's fueling a rise in the fractured politics there too. |
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| ▲ | blahblaher 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| There is no way, unless by political choice, for the US to become insolvent, meaning, not paying it's "debt" in US dollars |
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| ▲ | florkbork 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | There is no way (except for the way I just articulated)... | | | |
| ▲ | iAMkenough 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | There is a deliberate effort by the current administration to weaken the dollar. Given their track record and interest in other forms of currency, I could see them going too far. | | |
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| ▲ | neilwilson 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The US can’t become insolvent. Those who say it can are just hard of accounting. It’s scaremongering nonsense. All treasuries will be swapped back into dollars on maturity and interest settled |
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| ▲ | alfiedotwtf 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| America will move to Trump Coin of course! /s |
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| ▲ | api 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | He would legitimately try this. There’s no limit to the cartoonish narcissism. It’s absurd and would fail of course. |
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